Edgehalla

TE · SF · 74 lines since 2023

Luke Farrell Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Luke Farrell, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 7% — we make it 6%

Over/under record by market

  • Receiving yards over 4, under 4 (8 graded)
  • Receptions over 3, under 2 (5 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 2, under 53 (55 graded)
  • Longest reception over 2, under 3 (5 graded)

Our calls on him: model 6–4 · Short week 0–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

Luke Farrell prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 7%–…
2026 W4Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 6%0under
2026 W3Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 9%0under
2026 W2Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 11%0under
2026 W1Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 7%0under
2025 W18Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 7%0under
2025 W17Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 14%0under
2025 W17Long rec4.5036% / 51%0under
2025 W17Rec yds5.5034% / 49%0under
2025 W17Rec0.5046% / 61%0under
2025 W16Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 9%0under
2025 W15Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 12%0under
2025 W13Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 8%0under
2025 W12Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 7%0under
2025 W11Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 8%0under
2025 W10Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 8%1over
2025 W9Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 8%0under
2025 W8Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 6%0under
2025 W7Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 7%0under
2025 W6Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 11%0under
2025 W6Long rec3.52.648% / 50%0under
2025 W6Rec yds3.52.948% / 50%0under
2025 W5Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 8%0under
2025 W5Long rec5.53.943% / 48%8over
2025 W5Rec yds5.54.447% / 50%8over
2025 W5Rec0.5164% / 65%1over
2025 W4Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 9%0under
2025 W3Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 9%0under
2025 W3Long rec8.54.137% / 48%0under
2025 W3Rec yds10.54.536% / 50%0under
2025 W3Rec1.5127% / 44%0under
2025 W2Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 11%1over
2025 W2Long rec6.5026% / 50%11over
2025 W2Rec yds7.5025% / 49%15over
2025 W2Rec1.5011% / 34%2over
2025 W1Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 7%0under
2024 W18Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 10%0under
2024 W17Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 8%0under
2024 W16Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 8%0under
2024 W15Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 10%0under
2024 W14Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 6%0under
2024 W13Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 6%0under
2024 W11Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 4%0under
2024 W10Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 5%0under
2024 W9Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 6%0under
2024 W8Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 7%0under
2024 W7Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 7%0under
2024 W6Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 8%0under
2024 W5Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 18%0under
2024 W5Rec yds5.51.340% / 49%17over
2024 W4Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 9%0under
2024 W3Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 10%0under
2024 W3Rec yds5.55.349% / 52%1under
2024 W2Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 7%0under
2024 W1Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 8%0under
2023 W18Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 6%0under
2023 W17Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 8%0under
2023 W16Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 8%0under
2023 W15Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 8%0under
2023 W14Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 7%0under
2023 W13Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 10%0under
2023 W13Rec yds4.52.145% / 47%9over
2023 W13Rec0.5155% / 59%1over
2023 W12Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 11%0under
2023 W11Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 9%0under
2023 W10Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 8%0under
2023 W8Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 7%0under
2023 W7Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 6%0under
2023 W6Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 9%0under
2023 W5Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 6%0under
2023 W4Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 6%0under
2023 W3Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 6%0under
2023 W2Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 8%0under
2023 W1Any TD––– / 6%0under

Our calls

  • 2025 W17 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W5 Under 5.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W3 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W3 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W3 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W2 Under 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W2 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W5 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology