WR · WAS · 66 lines since 2023
Luke McCaffrey Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Luke McCaffrey, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 5% — we make it 13%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 6, under 8 (14 graded)
- Receptions over 3, under 10 (13 graded)
- Anytime TD over 3, under 22 (25 graded)
- Longest reception over 4, under 1 (5 graded)
Our calls on him: model 7–8 · Starters out on defense 0–2 · Pre-snap motion 1–0 · Short week 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 5% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 5% | – | void |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | – | void |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | – | void |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 6% | – | void |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 22% | – | void |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 16.5 | 10 | 34% / 49% | – | void |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 13 | 34% / 50% | – | void |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 24% / 42% | – | void |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 9.5 | 9.6 | 50% / 49% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 12 | 52% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 39% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 20.5 | 18 | 44% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 28 | 34% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 26% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 48% / 51% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 20 | 42% / 50% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 31% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 13.5 | 11 | 42% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 14 | 39% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 50% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 14.5 | 9.9 | 35% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 13 | 36% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 25% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 4.4 | 47% / 51% | 13 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 5.2 | 47% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 62% / 64% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 8.5 | 50% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 34% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 14 | 51% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 16 | 47% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 18 | 47% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 61% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 20 | 49% / 49% | 17 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 13 | 38% / 48% | 44 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 20 | 47% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 12% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2025 W9 Under 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) void
- 2025 W9 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) void
- 2025 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) void
- 2025 W7 Under 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 41.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 26.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 6.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Over 8.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology