WR · CHI · 71 lines since 2023
Luther Burden III Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Luther Burden III, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 31% — we make it 20%
- Line 18.5 yds longest rec — we project 21 (P(over) 57%)
- Line 46.5 rec yds — we project 42 (P(over) 45%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 36%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 12, under 6 (18 graded)
- Receptions over 11, under 6 (17 graded)
- Anytime TD over 3, under 16 (19 graded)
- Longest reception over 9, under 4 (13 graded)
Our calls on him: model 11–22 · Pre-snap motion 1–5 · Middle of the field 0–1 · Missed tackles 1–0 · Starters out on defense 2–0 · Freezing 0–2 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 31% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 18.5 | 21 | 57% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 42 | 45% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 46% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 43 | 46% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 33 | 46% / 49% | 61 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 47% | 7 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 41 | 40% / 50% | 32 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 34% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 75 | 65% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 70% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 22.5 | 23 | 52% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 47 | 41% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 21.5 | 21 | 49% / 49% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 43 | 41% / 50% | 138 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 48% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 16.5 | 15 | 47% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 24 | 44% / 50% | 84 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 52% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 18.5 | 15 | 40% / 51% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 28 | 31% / 51% | 67 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 35% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 17.5 | 11 | 30% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 16 | 22% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 17% / 43% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 17.5 | 13 | 38% / 51% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 19 | 30% / 51% | 46 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 16% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 13.5 | 9.8 | 39% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 13 | 39% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.8 | 48% / 51% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 11 | 47% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 44% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 13.5 | 12 | 45% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 17 | 48% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 12.5 | 11 | 44% / 49% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 14 | 38% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 25% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 12.5 | 8.3 | 39% / 51% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 11 | 35% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 55% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 10.5 | 11 | 50% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 13 | 48% / 51% | -4 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 43% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 7.5 | 2.8 | 39% / 49% | 65 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 2.9 | 39% / 52% | 101 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 22% / 33% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 6.5 | – | – / 48% | -3 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 36.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 49.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 49.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 57.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 56.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 56.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 56.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 52.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 27.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 27.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 27.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 40.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 40.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 34.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 18.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 20.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology