WR · NE · 133 lines since 2023
Mack Hollins Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Mack Hollins, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 29% — we make it 28%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 25, under 12 (37 graded)
- Receptions over 19, under 14 (33 graded)
- Anytime TD over 7, under 42 (49 graded)
- Longest reception over 9, under 4 (13 graded)
Our calls on him: model 33–34 · Freezing 2–1 · Pre-snap motion 1–3 · Starters out on defense 3–2 · Missed tackles 1–0 · Short week 1–1 · Wind 15+ mph 0–2 · Middle of the field 0–2 · Dome team outdoors 2–1 · Explosive plays 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 29% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 46 | 55% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 63% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 35 | 51% / 50% | 87 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 66% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 36 | 51% / 51% | 18 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 40 | 88% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 4 | 85% / 37% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 17.5 | 20 | 57% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 37 | 52% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 40% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 16.5 | 18 | 55% / 49% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 32 | 55% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 16.5 | 21 | 62% / 48% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 37 | 57% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 49% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 15.5 | 22 | 68% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 43 | 71% / 49% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 67% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 18.5 | 22 | 60% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 43 | 53% / 50% | 64 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 44% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 13.5 | 15 | 55% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 25 | 49% / 50% | 106 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 50% / 45% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 12.5 | 16 | 60% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 25 | 58% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 69% / 60% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 10.5 | 12 | 53% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 15 | 53% / 50% | 89 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 42% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 11.5 | 12 | 52% / 49% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 16 | 53% / 50% | 49 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 47% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 8.5 | 10 | 55% / 49% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 13 | 59% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 38% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 10.5 | 11 | 52% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 15 | 54% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 17 | 47% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 10.5 | 11 | 52% / 51% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 15 | 58% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 7.5 | 18 | 80% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 20 | 54% / 50% | 33 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 23 | 50% / 50% | 57 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 62% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 24 | 62% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 64% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 34 | 62% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 38% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 26 | 50% / 51% | 86 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 44% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 15 | 48% / 51% | 30 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 50% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 26 | 64% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 65% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 29 | 55% / 49% | 27 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 19 | 60% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 15 | 50% / 49% | 16 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 15 | 49% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 50% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 14% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 28 | 67% / 49% | 36 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 70% / 43% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 18 | 74% / 49% | 27 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 17 | 60% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 22 | 63% / 51% | 41 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 40% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 36 | 63% / 51% | 29 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 39% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 40 | 67% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 64% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 53 | 73% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 79% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 49 | 75% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 5 | 83% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 23.5 | – | – / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 40% | 3 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 27.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 31.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 31.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 24.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 24.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 40.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 19.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 13.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 14.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 17.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 16.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Over 16.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 24.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Over 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Over 16.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology