WR · PHI · 16 lines since 2023
Makai Lemon Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Makai Lemon, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 17% — we make it 17%
- Line 16.5 yds longest rec — we project 17 (P(over) 52%)
- Line 32.5 rec yds — we project 36 (P(over) 54%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 56%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 1, under 3 (4 graded)
- Receptions over 2, under 2 (4 graded)
- Anytime TD over 0, under 4 (4 graded)
Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 0–1 · model 3–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 17% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 52% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 36 | 54% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 30 | 43% / 51% | 27 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 17 | 32% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 33% / 54% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 21 | 45% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 23.5 | – | – / 50% | -5 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 42% | 3 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 35.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology