WR · NYG · 77 lines since 2023
Malik Nabers Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Malik Nabers, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 32% — we make it 26%
- Line 21.5 yds longest rec — we project 20 (P(over) 44%)
- Line 55.5 rec yds — we project 44 (P(over) 39%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 47%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 12, under 11 (23 graded)
- Receptions over 14, under 9 (23 graded)
- Anytime TD over 7, under 16 (23 graded)
- Longest reception over 2, under 2 (4 graded)
Our calls on him: model 11–15 · Freezing 1–0 · Starters out on defense 1–2 · Middle of the field 4–3 · Pre-snap motion 2–2 · Play action 1–0 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0 · Missed tackles 2–2 · Short week 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 32% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 21.5 | 20 | 44% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 44 | 39% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 56% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 37 | 30% / 50% | 112 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 35 | 29% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 25% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 38 | 29% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 3 | 22% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 57 | 52% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 21.5 | 25 | 61% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 68 | 52% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 44% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 26.5 | 26 | 49% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 79.5 | 74 | 46% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 46% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 25.5 | 25 | 49% / 51% | 48 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 76.5 | 71 | 45% / 50% | 167 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 45% / 47% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 24.5 | 26 | 54% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 75.5 | 82 | 54% / 50% | 71 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 59% / 44% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 75.5 | 64 | 39% / 50% | 64 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 50% / 59% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 53 | 40% / 50% | 171 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 57% / 57% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 59 | 36% / 50% | 68 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 50% / 52% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 51 | 34% / 51% | 82 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 59% / 56% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 50 | 37% / 49% | 79 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 50% / 52% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 51 | 30% / 51% | 69 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 38% / 49% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 59 | 50% / 51% | 64 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 58% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 72.5 | 80 | 56% / 51% | 50 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 57% / 54% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 63 | 43% / 51% | 59 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 43% / 46% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 53 | 36% / 51% | 71 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 55% / 57% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 72.5 | 66 | 44% / 52% | 41 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 48% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 65 | 44% / 51% | 115 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 43% / 47% | 12 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 58 | 43% / 51% | 78 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 39% / 43% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 35 | 21% / 51% | 127 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 3 | 18% / 44% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 62.5 | – | – / 51% | 66 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | – | – / 47% | 5 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 54.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 53.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 61.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 76.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 75.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 75.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 75.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 75.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 75.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 75.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 75.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 62.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 62.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 62.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 71.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over 65.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 65.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 62.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 62.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 71.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 71.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Over 71.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 71.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Over 58.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Over 72.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Over 72.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Over 71.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 71.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 71.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Over 68.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 68.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 68.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Under 72.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Over 71.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 71.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Over 71.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 71.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 65.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 65.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology