QB · MIA · 39 lines since 2023
Malik Willis Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Malik Willis, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 25% — we make it 7%
- Line 28.5 pass attempts — we project 29 (P(over) 51%)
- Line 16.5 completions — we project 19 (P(over) 65%)
- Line 0.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 62%)
- Line 190.5 pass yds — we project 175 (P(over) 42%)
- Line 5.5 rush attempts — we project 3 (P(over) 17%)
- Line 32.5 rush yds — we project 13 (P(over) 15%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 5, under 2 (7 graded)
- Passing TDs over 4, under 3 (7 graded)
- Rushing yards over 4, under 3 (7 graded)
- Anytime TD over 3, under 5 (8 graded)
- Pass attempts over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
- Completions over 1, under 0 (1 graded)
- Rush attempts over 1, under 0 (1 graded)
Our calls on him: Low total (40.5 or less) 2–3 · Man coverage 1–0 · model 9–8 · Pressure 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 25% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 28.5 | 29 | 51% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 16.5 | 19 | 65% / 53% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 62% / 63% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 190.5 | 175 | 42% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 5.5 | 3 | 17% / 53% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 13 | 15% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 53% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 169.5 | 153 | 40% / 50% | 85 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 13 | 16% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 63% / 65% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass yds | 176.5 | 174 | 48% / 50% | 210 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 33.5 | 10.0 | 9% / 50% | 56 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 55% / 58% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Pass yds | 179.5 | 167 | 43% / 50% | 197 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 37.5 | 11 | 7% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 64% / 64% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass yds | 181.5 | 182 | 50% / 50% | 220 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 39.5 | 6.2 | 2% / 51% | 39 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Pass att | 23.5 | 30 | 85% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Cmp | 15.5 | 20 | 81% / 48% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 71% / 68% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Pass yds | 166.5 | 203 | 69% / 49% | 288 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 6.5 | 4 | 10% / 49% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 13 | 16% / 48% | 60 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 65% / 53% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Pass yds | 146.5 | 169 | 64% / 50% | 202 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 6.1 | 5% / 50% | 73 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 0% TD chance | 0% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 69% / 64% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Pass yds | 165.5 | 206 | 70% / 49% | 122 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 0 | 0% / 49% | 41 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 23% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 169.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 169.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 169.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 169.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 30.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 33.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 179.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 37.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 181.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 39.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 23.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 23.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 15.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 166.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 166.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 32.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Over 0.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 146.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Over 146.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 32.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Over 0.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Over 165.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 30.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology