QB · WAS · 66 lines since 2023
Marcus Mariota Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Marcus Mariota, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 4
- Anytime TD priced at 20% — we make it 7%
- Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 41%)
- Line 203.5 pass yds — we project 215 (P(over) 55%)
- Line 26.5 rush yds — we project 13 (P(over) 20%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 7, under 3 (10 graded)
- Passing TDs over 4, under 6 (10 graded)
- Rushing yards over 5, under 5 (10 graded)
- Anytime TD over 1, under 10 (11 graded)
- Pass attempts over 2, under 6 (8 graded)
- Completions over 3, under 5 (8 graded)
- Rush attempts over 3, under 5 (8 graded)
Our calls on him: model 19–18 · Starters out on defense 2–0 · Low total (40.5 or less) 0–1 · Big underdog (6.5+) 3–5 · Man coverage 1–1 · Freezing 0–1 · Pressure 0–2 · High total (48.5+) 2–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 203.5 | 215 | 55% / 50% | 46 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 26.5 | 13 | 20% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 60% / 60% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Pass yds | 171.5 | 170 | 49% / 50% | 183 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 11 | 19% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Pass att | 29.5 | 31 | 57% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Cmp | 17.5 | 19 | 64% / 48% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 66% / 68% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Pass yds | 196.5 | 184 | 43% / 50% | 95 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 6.5 | 5 | 25% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 20 | 30% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass att | 28.5 | 33 | 73% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Cmp | 18.5 | 21 | 68% / 48% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass yds | 203.5 | 228 | 61% / 50% | 211 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 6.5 | 4 | 17% / 52% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 22 | 35% / 49% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass att | 29.5 | 32 | 65% / 49% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Cmp | 18.5 | 21 | 69% / 48% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 68% / 67% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Pass yds | 191.5 | 201 | 56% / 50% | 294 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 5.5 | 4 | 18% / 51% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 15 | 27% / 51% | 55 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass att | 27.5 | 32 | 73% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Cmp | 18.5 | 21 | 66% / 48% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass yds | 200.5 | 222 | 60% / 50% | 213 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush att | 5.5 | 4 | 24% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 26.5 | 18 | 33% / 50% | 49 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass att | 30.5 | 33 | 63% / 51% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Cmp | 19.5 | 21 | 63% / 49% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 38% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Pass yds | 202.5 | 216 | 57% / 50% | 213 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 5.5 | 3 | 19% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 28.5 | 16 | 26% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Pass att | 30.5 | 32 | 56% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Cmp | 18.5 | 20 | 64% / 52% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 33% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Pass yds | 198.5 | 200 | 51% / 50% | 213 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rush att | 5.5 | 2 | 5% / 52% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 9.5 | 12% / 51% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Pass att | 28.5 | 32 | 70% / 52% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Cmp | 19.5 | 21 | 63% / 47% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 37% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass yds | 200.5 | 209 | 55% / 49% | 156 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 6.5 | 3 | 5% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 33.5 | 12 | 12% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | – | – / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Pass att | 30.5 | – | – / 47% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Cmp | 19.5 | – | – / 52% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 37% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass yds | 205.5 | – | – / 50% | 207 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 6.5 | – | – / 53% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 29.5 | – | – / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 25% | – | void |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 203.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 26.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 171.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 171.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 23.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 29.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 29.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 17.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 17.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 196.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 196.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 30.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 28.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 18.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 203.5 pass yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 203.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 30.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 29.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 29.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 18.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 18.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 18.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 191.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 191.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 191.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 27.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 27.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 18.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 200.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 26.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 30.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 30.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 30.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 19.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 202.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 202.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 202.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 28.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 30.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 30.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 30.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 18.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 18.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 198.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 30.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 28.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 200.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 33.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology