TE · BAL · 167 lines since 2023
Mark Andrews Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Mark Andrews, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 29% — we make it 25%
- Line 14.5 yds longest rec — we project 16 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 30.5 rec yds — we project 36 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 59%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 1, under 1 (2 graded)
- Receiving yards over 23, under 25 (48 graded)
- Receptions over 23, under 25 (48 graded)
- Anytime TD over 19, under 29 (48 graded)
- Longest reception over 5, under 12 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: model 35–27 · Freezing 2–1 · Pre-snap motion 5–8 · Red-zone defense 0–2 · Starters out on defense 2–7 · Missed tackles 1–1 · Short week 2–3 · Wind 15+ mph 1–4 · Middle of the field 6–4 · Play action 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 29% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 56% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 36 | 56% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 59% / 56% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 35 | 45% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 44 | 51% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 40 | 45% / 50% | 49 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 46 | 65% / 50% | 49 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 62% / 44% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 14.5 | 15 | 53% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 28 | 48% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 12.5 | 12 | 49% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 20 | 46% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 50% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 52% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 29 | 46% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 36% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 17.5 | 18 | 53% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 33 | 42% / 51% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 50% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 30 | 46% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 17.5 | 20 | 57% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 37 | 46% / 48% | 47 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 16.5 | 19 | 58% / 52% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 37 | 53% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 50% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 30 | 51% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 15.5 | 18 | 57% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 33 | 53% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 14.5 | 19 | 62% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 35 | 57% / 51% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 64% / 60% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 25% / 26% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 13.5 | 16 | 60% / 51% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 32 | 60% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 64% / 54% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 12.5 | 15 | 60% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 30 | 56% / 51% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 44% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 13.5 | 15 | 56% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 30 | 55% / 51% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 68% / 60% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 16.5 | 18 | 56% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 35 | 52% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 67% / 57% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 16.5 | 19 | 58% / 51% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 35 | 49% / 51% | 91 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 44% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 56% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 39 | 49% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 19.5 | 23 | 61% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 57 | 60% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 38 | 56% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 63% / 59% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 44 | 56% / 49% | 68 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 37 | 53% / 51% | 37 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 43% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 38 | 53% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 13% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 37 | 54% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 50% / 41% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 33 | 52% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 60% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 36 | 53% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 63% / 59% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 37 | 43% / 51% | 68 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 27 | 45% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 50% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 27 | 48% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 50% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 33 | 54% / 52% | 41 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 26 | 53% / 51% | 66 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 43% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 24 | 51% / 50% | 55 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 44% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 28 | 44% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 30 | 40% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 28 | 35% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 38 | 38% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 51 | 43% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 42 | 44% / 51% | 44 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 46 | 47% / 50% | 80 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 46% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 46 | 41% / 51% | 40 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 44 | 40% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 53% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 39 | 36% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 39 | 43% / 50% | 65 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 65% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 35 | 38% / 51% | 80 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 62% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 43 | 40% / 51% | 35 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 48.5 | – | – / 51% | 45 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | – | – / 45% | 5 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 29.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 22.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 32.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 39.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 39.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 39.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 33.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 40.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 40.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 40.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 29.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 29.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 29.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 29.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 29.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 24.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 25.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 25.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 25.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 26.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 33.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 33.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 33.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 38.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology