WR · LAC · 108 lines since 2023
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Marquez Valdes-Scantling, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 15% — we make it 7%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 16, under 16 (32 graded)
- Receptions over 10, under 18 (28 graded)
- Anytime TD over 5, under 35 (40 graded)
- Longest reception over 2, under 4 (6 graded)
Our calls on him: Freezing 0–4 · model 24–28 · Pre-snap motion 1–3 · Short week 1–1 · Starters out on defense 1–2 · Dome team outdoors 2–1 · Explosive plays 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 15% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 47% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 22 | 42% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 44% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 12.5 | 7.7 | 39% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 8.9 | 37% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 12.5 | 7.3 | 39% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 7.9 | 42% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 29% / 36% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 10% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 7.5 | 6.4 | 47% / 49% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 6.7 | 48% / 51% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 5.5 | 7.2 | 54% / 49% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 8.0 | 55% / 50% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 10.5 | 3.9 | 37% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 4.0 | 36% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 22% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 27 | 40% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 52% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 28 | 45% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 27 | 40% / 51% | 64 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 27 | 39% / 51% | 51 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 24 | 35% / 51% | 36 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 30% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 14 | 26% / 51% | 87 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 21% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 13 | 29% / 49% | 109 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 18% / 42% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 6.7 | 52% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 12 | 49% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 2.5 | 12 | 69% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 13% | – | void |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 24 | 64% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 27 | 59% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 62% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 24 | 61% / 50% | 17 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 26 | 65% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 62% / 44% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 21 | 64% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 39% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 31 | 69% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 65% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 26 | 60% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 64% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 24 | 60% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 48% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 22 | 60% / 51% | 27 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 47% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 17 | 55% / 50% | 84 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 40% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 21 | 55% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 22 | 50% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 23 | 52% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 60% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 29 | 53% / 53% | 37 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 27 | 46% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 41.5 | – | – / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 55% | 2 | under |
Our calls
- 2025 W18 Under 27.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 16.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 7.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 5.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 5.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 12.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 34.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 34.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Over 37.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 37.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 5.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Over 2.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W17 Over 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W17 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W16 Over 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W16 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W15 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W15 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W14 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W14 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W14 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W13 Under 12.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W13 Over 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W13 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W12 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W12 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W12 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W11 Over 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W11 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W9 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W9 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W8 Under 15.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W8 Over 15.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology