WR · PHI · 124 lines since 2023

Marquise Brown Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Marquise Brown, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 14% — we make it 7%

Over/under record by market

Receiving yards over 16, under 20 (36 graded)
Receptions over 13, under 21 (34 graded)
Anytime TD over 8, under 28 (36 graded)
Longest reception over 9, under 7 (16 graded)

Our calls on him: model 29–25 · Pre-snap motion 3–5 · Short week 1–2 · Freezing 0–2 · Starters out on defense 3–2 · Middle of the field 1–0 · Missed tackles 1–1 · Dome team outdoors 4–1 · Explosive plays 1–1 · Contested catches 0–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

Marquise Brown prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	7% TD chance	7% / 14%	–	…
2026 W2	Any TD	–	7% TD chance	7% / 7%	0	under
2025 W18	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 27%	0	under
2025 W18	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 27%	0	under
2025 W18	Long rec	14.5	18	61% / 50%	51	over
2025 W18	Rec yds	25.5	35	62% / 51%	64	over
2025 W17	Any TD	–	6% TD chance	6% / 11%	0	under
2025 W17	Any TD	–	6% TD chance	6% / 11%	0	under
2025 W17	Long rec	11.5	11	50% / 52%	7	under
2025 W17	Rec yds	19.5	19	49% / 50%	7	under
2025 W17	Rec	2.5	3	52% / 42%	1	under
2025 W16	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 22%	0	under
2025 W16	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 21%	0	under
2025 W16	Long rec	16.5	19	56% / 51%	18	over
2025 W16	Rec yds	35.5	35	49% / 50%	22	under
2025 W16	Rec	3.5	3	46% / 45%	3	under
2025 W14	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 11%	0	under
2025 W14	Long rec	10.5	15	64% / 49%	35	over
2025 W14	Rec yds	15.5	23	62% / 49%	35	over
2025 W14	Rec	1.5	2	66% / 43%	1	under
2025 W13	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 20%	1	over
2025 W13	Long rec	11.5	20	72% / 51%	10	under
2025 W13	Rec yds	18.5	33	69% / 51%	20	over
2025 W13	Rec	1.5	3	75% / 56%	2	over
2025 W12	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 20%	0	under
2025 W12	Long rec	14.5	20	66% / 50%	10	under
2025 W12	Rec yds	21.5	37	69% / 52%	10	under
2025 W12	Rec	2.5	3	59% / 40%	1	under
2025 W11	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 18%	0	under
2025 W11	Long rec	14.5	18	60% / 51%	18	over
2025 W11	Rec yds	21.5	30	61% / 50%	40	over
2025 W11	Rec	1.5	3	72% / 61%	4	over
2025 W9	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 22%	0	under
2025 W9	Long rec	12.5	19	68% / 50%	40	over
2025 W9	Rec yds	18.5	32	69% / 51%	73	over
2025 W9	Rec	2.5	3	54% / 40%	2	under
2025 W8	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 24%	0	under
2025 W8	Long rec	15.5	21	66% / 48%	0	under
2025 W8	Rec yds	22.5	42	71% / 50%	0	under
2025 W8	Rec	2.5	3	64% / 43%	0	under
2025 W7	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 27%	1	over
2025 W7	Long rec	13.5	23	76% / 51%	8	under
2025 W7	Rec yds	24.5	47	75% / 51%	14	under
2025 W7	Rec	2.5	4	73% / 48%	2	under
2025 W6	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 28%	1	over
2025 W6	Long rec	17.5	23	66% / 51%	20	over
2025 W6	Rec yds	39.5	50	60% / 50%	45	over
2025 W6	Rec	3.5	4	58% / 55%	4	over
2025 W5	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 28%	0	under
2025 W5	Long rec	17.5	22	63% / 51%	20	over
2025 W5	Rec yds	37.5	47	60% / 50%	48	over
2025 W5	Rec	3.5	4	61% / 57%	4	over
2025 W4	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 32%	1	over
2025 W4	Long rec	16.5	23	70% / 52%	18	over
2025 W4	Rec yds	39.5	56	67% / 50%	38	under
2025 W4	Rec yds	40.5	56	66% / 50%	38	under
2025 W4	Rec	3.5	5	72% / 58%	3	under
2025 W3	Any TD	–	36% TD chance	36% / 42%	0	under
2025 W3	Long rec	20.5	24	61% / 51%	17	under
2025 W3	Rec yds	55.5	60	53% / 50%	42	under
2025 W3	Rec yds	54.5	60	55% / 50%	42	under
2025 W3	Rec	5.5	5	46% / 45%	4	under
2025 W3	Rec	5.5	5	46% / 46%	4	under
2025 W2	Any TD	–	35% TD chance	35% / 37%	0	under
2025 W2	Long rec	22.5	25	58% / 51%	11	under
2025 W2	Rec yds	60.5	66	55% / 51%	30	under
2025 W2	Rec yds	63.5	66	52% / 45%	30	under
2025 W2	Rec	5.5	6	52% / 55%	5	under
2025 W2	Rec	5.5	6	52% / 53%	5	under
2025 W1	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 32%	0	under
2025 W1	Long rec	16.5	23	66% / 51%	49	over
2025 W1	Rec yds	38.5	46	57% / 50%	99	over
2025 W1	Rec yds	38.5	46	57% / 51%	99	over
2025 W1	Rec	3.5	3	49% / 51%	10	over
2025 W1	Rec	3.5	3	49% / 53%	10	over
2024 W17	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 27%	0	under
2024 W17	Rec yds	41.5	30	35% / 51%	46	over
2024 W17	Rec	3.5	3	31% / 51%	4	over
2024 W16	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 15%	0	under
2024 W16	Rec yds	16.5	40	77% / 50%	45	over
2024 W16	Rec	1.5	3	82% / 53%	5	over
2023 W17	Any TD	–	–	– / 32%	–	void
2023 W15	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 27%	0	under
2023 W15	Rec yds	43.5	43	49% / 49%	0	under
2023 W15	Rec	3.5	4	57% / 56%	0	under
2023 W13	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 28%	0	under
2023 W13	Rec yds	47.5	48	51% / 48%	0	under
2023 W13	Rec	3.5	4	65% / 57%	0	under
2023 W12	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 33%	0	under
2023 W12	Rec yds	48.5	50	52% / 48%	88	over
2023 W12	Rec	3.5	4	62% / 57%	6	over
2023 W11	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 38%	0	under
2023 W11	Rec yds	60.5	53	43% / 50%	18	under
2023 W11	Rec	5.5	4	36% / 44%	2	under
2023 W10	Any TD	–	35% TD chance	35% / 35%	0	under
2023 W10	Rec yds	57.5	59	51% / 50%	28	under
2023 W10	Rec	5.5	5	44% / 45%	1	under
2023 W9	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 28%	0	under
2023 W9	Rec yds	45.5	39	42% / 48%	24	under
2023 W9	Rec	4.5	5	53% / 45%	4	under
2023 W8	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 32%	1	over
2023 W8	Rec yds	49.5	54	55% / 51%	33	under
2023 W8	Rec	4.5	5	58% / 46%	6	over
2023 W7	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 31%	0	under
2023 W7	Rec yds	55.5	55	49% / 50%	49	under
2023 W7	Rec	4.5	5	58% / 53%	3	under
2023 W6	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 36%	0	under
2023 W6	Rec yds	63.5	60	48% / 49%	34	under
2023 W6	Rec	5.5	5	47% / 43%	4	under
2023 W5	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 34%	1	over
2023 W5	Rec yds	54.5	61	56% / 50%	61	over
2023 W5	Rec	4.5	6	64% / 54%	4	under
2023 W4	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 26%	0	under
2023 W4	Rec yds	44.5	48	55% / 50%	96	over
2023 W4	Rec	4.5	5	63% / 44%	7	over
2023 W3	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 24%	1	over
2023 W3	Rec yds	43.5	48	56% / 50%	61	over
2023 W3	Rec	3.5	5	72% / 58%	5	over
2023 W2	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 29%	1	over
2023 W2	Rec yds	42.5	36	41% / 50%	54	over
2023 W2	Rec	3.5	4	56% / 56%	6	over
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 22%	0	under
2023 W1	Rec yds	48.5	–	– / 50%	28	under
2023 W1	Rec	4.5	–	– / 50%	3	under

Our calls

2025 W18 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Over 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 19.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 19.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 35.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Over 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 15.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 15.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 18.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 18.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 21.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Over 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Over 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W6 Over 39.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W6 Over 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W5 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W5 Over 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W5 Under 37.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Over 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Over 40.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W3 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W2 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W1 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W1 Over 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W17 Over 41.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2024 W17 Over 41.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
2024 W17 Under 41.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2024 W17 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W17 Under 41.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
2024 W17 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W16 Under 16.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
2024 W16 Over 16.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2024 W16 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W16 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2023 W13 Under 47.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
2023 W13 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2023 W12 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology