RB · GB · 27 lines since 2023
MarShawn Lloyd Player Props
Closing consensus lines for MarShawn Lloyd, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 46% — we make it 45%
- Line 8.5 yds longest rec — we project 7.8 (P(over) 46%)
- Line 13.5 rec yds — we project 11 (P(over) 43%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 35%)
- Line 8.5 rush attempts — we project 11 (P(over) 73%)
- Line 45.5 rush + rec yds — we project 50 (P(over) 55%)
- Line 27.5 rush yds — we project 36 (P(over) 64%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 0, under 4 (4 graded)
- Receiving yards over 2, under 2 (4 graded)
- Receptions over 3, under 1 (4 graded)
- Anytime TD over 1, under 4 (5 graded)
Our calls on him: model 4–6 · Starters out on defense 0–1 · Short week 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 46% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 8.5 | 7.8 | 46% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 11 | 43% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 8.5 | 11 | 73% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush+rec yds | 45.5 | 50 | 55% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 36 | 64% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 3.1 | 38% / 49% | 36 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 26% / 39% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 28 | 59% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 4.6 | 47% / 49% | 7 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 36% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 39 | 75% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 0.6 | 32% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 16% / 40% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 48.5 | 51 | 53% / 51% | 20 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 0 | 12% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 8% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 44.5 | 12 | 6% / 50% | 37 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 19% | – | void |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | – | – / 17% | – | void |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 20% | – | void |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 23.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 23.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 23.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 23.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 44.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology