WR · ARI · 114 lines since 2023
Marvin Harrison Jr. Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Marvin Harrison Jr., what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 26% — we make it 22%
- Line 18.5 yds longest rec — we project 20 (P(over) 54%)
- Line 34.5 rec yds — we project 32 (P(over) 48%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 46%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 14, under 19 (33 graded)
- Receptions over 11, under 22 (33 graded)
- Anytime TD over 12, under 21 (33 graded)
- Longest reception over 4, under 7 (11 graded)
Our calls on him: model 17–19 · Dome team outdoors 8–2 · Missed tackles 0–1 · Pre-snap motion 4–2 · Starters out on defense 3–3 · Short week 0–1 · Play action 0–4 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 26% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 54% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 32 | 48% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 54% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 28 | 44% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 27 | 43% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 44% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 27 | 39% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 27% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 44 | 47% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 18.5 | 23 | 61% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 44 | 58% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 67% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 20.5 | 24 | 60% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 50 | 53% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 20.5 | 23 | 58% / 49% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 48 | 46% / 49% | 69 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 22.5 | 23 | 53% / 48% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 51 | 45% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 23.5 | 26 | 55% / 51% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 50 | 42% / 50% | 96 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 58% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 21.5 | 22 | 51% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 47 | 44% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 21.5 | 23 | 55% / 49% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 51 | 50% / 50% | 32 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 21.5 | 26 | 62% / 49% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 55 | 51% / 50% | 98 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 45% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 20.5 | 24 | 61% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 54 | 54% / 51% | 66 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 62% / 59% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 20.5 | 24 | 60% / 49% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 52 | 52% / 50% | 44 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 21.5 | 27 | 63% / 52% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 60 | 52% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 66 | 56% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 56 | 52% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 43% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 47 | 45% / 50% | 96 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 42% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 52 | 49% / 49% | 39 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 57 | 51% / 50% | 32 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 55 | 52% / 52% | 49 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 41% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 51 | 43% / 52% | 60 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 48% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 50 | 48% / 51% | 47 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 58% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 43 | 47% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 50% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 48 | 45% / 51% | 34 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 58% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 36 | 39% / 50% | 111 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 37 | 34% / 51% | 21 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 19% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 56 | 50% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 57 | 48% / 50% | 36 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 55% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 74.5 | 72 | 48% / 50% | 45 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 31% / 48% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 58 | 47% / 50% | 64 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 23% / 44% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 25 | 20% / 50% | 130 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 2 | 10% / 52% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 65.5 | – | – / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | – | – / 45% | 1 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 36.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 36.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 36.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 47.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 47.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 52.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 52.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 52.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 55.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 55.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 58.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 58.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 50.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 54.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 49.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 49.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 49.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 58.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 54.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 53.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Over 55.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Over 52.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 59.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 52.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 52.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 45.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Over 46.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 46.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Under 53.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 56.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 58.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology