WR · DEN · 187 lines since 2023
Marvin Mims Jr. Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Marvin Mims Jr., what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 13% — we make it 8%
- Line 10.5 yds longest rec — we project 9.1 (P(over) 45%)
- Line 13.5 rec yds — we project 11 (P(over) 45%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 44%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 2, under 4 (6 graded)
- Receiving yards over 16, under 33 (49 graded)
- Receptions over 19, under 27 (46 graded)
- Anytime TD over 11, under 55 (66 graded)
- Longest reception over 5, under 9 (14 graded)
Our calls on him: model 24–33 · Missed tackles 5–3 · Short week 2–1 · Pre-snap motion 0–3 · Starters out on defense 5–5 · Freezing 1–2 · Middle of the field 0–1 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0 · Explosive plays 3–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 13% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 10.5 | 9.1 | 45% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 11 | 45% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 45% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 11% | – | void |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 16 | 58% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 11.5 | 14 | 58% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 21 | 55% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 40% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 2.5 | 1.3 | 45% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 12.5 | 14 | 55% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 22 | 64% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 65% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 0.3 | 39% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 11.5 | 12 | 50% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 17 | 48% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 41% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 0.1 | 43% / 49% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 14% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 10.5 | 13 | 58% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 19 | 64% / 56% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 60% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 9.5 | 14 | 64% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 21 | 62% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 48% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 13.5 | 14 | 53% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 23 | 53% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 15.5 | 20 | 62% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 37 | 58% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 61% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 0 | 31% / 51% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 14.5 | 17 | 57% / 48% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 29 | 61% / 51% | 85 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 53% / 45% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 15.5 | 18 | 56% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 30 | 55% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 14.5 | 15 | 52% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 26 | 47% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 48% / 49% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 24 | 48% / 49% | 69 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 47% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 54% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 26 | 50% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 47% / 50% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 26 | 44% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 19.5 | 23 | 58% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 48 | 60% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 41% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 28 | 38% / 51% | 51 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 27% / 41% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 22 | 39% / 50% | 103 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 52% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 17 | 41% / 51% | 62 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 44% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 16 | 41% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 25% / 42% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 0 | 28% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 13 | 49% / 49% | 105 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 0 | 19% / 48% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 12 | 54% / 49% | 44 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 14% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 9.0 | 43% / 48% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 14 | 44% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 27% | – | void |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 15 | 53% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 15 | 55% / 51% | 63 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 48% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 14 | 47% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 14 | 47% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 16 | 51% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 16 | 53% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 50% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 14 | 35% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 14 | 38% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 23% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 23% / 39% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 8.5 | 38% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 8.5 | 38% / 51% | 24 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 50% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 11 | 38% / 52% | 12 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 11 | 38% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 13 | 37% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 13 | 37% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 61% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 15 | 37% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 15 | 37% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 25% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 25% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 17 | 50% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 17 | 50% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 23 | 54% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 23 | 55% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 66% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 66% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 27 | 53% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 27 | 53% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 39% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 27 | 43% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 27 | 40% / 49% | 47 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 15% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 41.5 | – | – / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 42.5 | – | – / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 47% | 2 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W1 Over 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 18.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 18.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 3.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 17.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 1.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 10.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 13.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 21.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 29.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 29.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 1.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 21.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 26.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 25.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 37.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 37.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 37.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 23.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 23.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Over 22.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 22.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 5.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 9.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 9.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 9.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology