TE · NYJ · 63 lines since 2023
Mason Taylor Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Mason Taylor, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 17% — we make it 21%
- Line 9.5 yds longest rec — we project 11 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 13.5 rec yds — we project 16 (P(over) 55%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 61%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 3, under 12 (15 graded)
- Receptions over 5, under 10 (15 graded)
- Anytime TD over 1, under 14 (15 graded)
- Longest reception over 4, under 9 (13 graded)
Our calls on him: model 11–8 · Pre-snap motion 4–0 · Short week 1–0 · Missed tackles 0–1 · Starters out on defense 1–1 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 17% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 9.5 | 11 | 56% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 16 | 55% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 56% | – | … |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 18 | 51% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 28 | 63% / 51% | -2 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 66% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | – | – / 17% | – | void |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 12.5 | 13 | 51% / 51% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 22 | 43% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 35% / 41% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 13.5 | 12 | 45% / 51% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 22 | 39% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 14.5 | 12 | 36% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 22 | 31% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 28% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 13.5 | 13 | 47% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 26 | 42% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 42% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 14.5 | 13 | 46% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 25 | 48% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 50% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 37 | 45% / 49% | 34 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 49% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 35 | 43% / 51% | 31 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 49% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 33 | 46% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 59% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 50% / 48% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 30 | 49% / 51% | 67 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 41% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 12.5 | 13 | 52% / 48% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 22 | 49% / 51% | 65 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 48% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 12.5 | 11 | 45% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 18 | 42% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 44% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 13.5 | 12 | 43% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 17 | 45% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 12.5 | – | – / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 21.5 | – | – / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 49% | 1 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 26.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 28.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 31.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 26.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 40.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 40.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 31.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 31.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 22.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology