WR · GB · 78 lines since 2023
Matthew Golden Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Matthew Golden, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 33% — we make it 30%
- Line 19.5 yds longest rec — we project 24 (P(over) 61%)
- Line 57.5 rec yds — we project 48 (P(over) 42%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 36%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 1, under 2 (3 graded)
- Receiving yards over 8, under 9 (17 graded)
- Receptions over 8, under 9 (17 graded)
- Anytime TD over 2, under 16 (18 graded)
- Rush attempts over 1, under 2 (3 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 7 (13 graded)
Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 0–2 · model 16–25 · Short week 1–1 · Pre-snap motion 1–1 · Freezing 1–0 · Wind 15+ mph 2–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 33% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 19.5 | 24 | 61% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 48 | 42% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 43 | 38% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 31% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 45 | 40% / 51% | 100 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 33% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 31 | 29% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 28% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 26 | 34% / 50% | 95 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 26% / 47% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 5.5 | 12 | 69% / 51% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 17 | 69% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 0.5 | 2 | 82% / 60% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 12.5 | 14 | 56% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 22 | 58% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 63% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 7.5 | 11 | 63% / 49% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 15 | 66% / 50% | 55 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 0.5 | 2 | 83% / 65% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 11.5 | 15 | 59% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 21 | 61% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 63% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 24% | – | void |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 13.5 | 15 | 53% / 50% | – | void |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 14.5 | 14 | 49% / 49% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 21 | 44% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | – | void |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 16.5 | 18 | 56% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 33 | 55% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 59% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 20.5 | 22 | 55% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 47 | 56% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush att | 1.5 | 1 | 27% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 4.5 | 0.6 | 37% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 22.5 | 23 | 53% / 49% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 46 | 49% / 48% | 37 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 50% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 4.5 | 48% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 22.5 | 18 | 38% / 49% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 30 | 36% / 52% | 86 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 41% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 39% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 2.2 | 46% / 52% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 22.5 | 19 | 41% / 51% | 46 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 33 | 35% / 51% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 33% / 41% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 18.5 | 11 | 33% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 15 | 26% / 51% | 52 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 23% / 48% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 17.5 | 6.8 | 25% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 7.6 | 12% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 12% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 21.5 | – | – / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 47.5 | – | – / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 56% | 2 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 56.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 56.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 55.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 49.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 5.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 7.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 14.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 14.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 25.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 28.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 4.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 3.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 45.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 35.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology