QB · LAR · 248 lines since 2023
Matthew Stafford Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Matthew Stafford, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 6% — we make it 14%
- Line 37.5 pass attempts — we project 38 (P(over) 50%)
- Line 23.5 completions — we project 24 (P(over) 55%)
- Line 2.5 pass TDs — we project 2 (P(over) 33%)
- Line 278.5 pass yds — we project 306 (P(over) 60%)
- Line 1.5 rush yds — we project 5.9 (P(over) 69%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 31, under 21 (52 graded)
- Passing TDs over 25, under 27 (52 graded)
- Rushing yards over 16, under 23 (39 graded)
- Anytime TD over 0, under 52 (52 graded)
- Pass attempts over 8, under 9 (17 graded)
- Completions over 9, under 8 (17 graded)
- Rush attempts over 7, under 6 (13 graded)
Our calls on him: High total (48.5+) 16–10 · Starters out on defense 5–6 · Dome team outdoors 6–12 · Man coverage 2–1 · model 53–75 · Pressure 7–7 · Big favourite (6.5+) 5–3 · Short week 1–4 · Wind 15+ mph 1–2 · Freezing 1–0 · Play action 3–0 · Low total (40.5 or less) 0–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 6% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 37.5 | 38 | 50% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 23.5 | 24 | 55% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2 | 33% / 40% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 278.5 | 306 | 60% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 5.9 | 69% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 50% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 250.5 | 238 | 44% / 51% | 317 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.8 | 72% / 47% | 10 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 48% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Pass yds | 239.5 | 216 | 40% / 49% | 390 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 3.8 | 69% / 44% | 13 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 61% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Pass yds | 239.5 | 248 | 54% / 50% | 327 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.5 | 70% / 36% | -1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass yds | 259.5 | 260 | 50% / 51% | 155 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.5 | 71% / 37% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Pass att | 31.5 | 34 | 62% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 52% / 48% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 38% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Pass yds | 255.5 | 297 | 65% / 50% | 259 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass att | 33.5 | 34 | 54% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Cmp | 22.5 | 22 | 50% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 39% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass yds | 269.5 | 283 | 55% / 49% | 269 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Pass att | 33.5 | 33 | 50% / 52% | 49 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 52% / 51% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Pass yds | 232.5 | 220 | 44% / 50% | 457 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 39% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 1.7 | 58% / 34% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass att | 35.5 | 35 | 47% / 52% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Cmp | 23.5 | 23 | 47% / 52% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass yds | 281.5 | 297 | 55% / 50% | 368 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 1.5 | 2 | 60% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 3.0 | 65% / 34% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass att | 33.5 | 34 | 52% / 53% | 31 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Cmp | 23.5 | 22 | 41% / 48% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 44% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Pass yds | 265.5 | 278 | 55% / 50% | 281 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 1.5 | 2 | 66% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass att | 33.5 | 34 | 51% / 51% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Cmp | 22.5 | 22 | 48% / 51% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass yds | 258.5 | 265 | 52% / 50% | 243 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 1.5 | 2 | 70% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 3.5 | 69% / 36% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Pass att | 35.5 | 35 | 48% / 48% | 35 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Cmp | 23.5 | 23 | 46% / 48% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 39% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Pass yds | 262.5 | 283 | 58% / 50% | 273 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 1.5 | 2 | 69% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.2 | 70% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass att | 36.5 | 36 | 46% / 52% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Cmp | 24.5 | 24 | 45% / 48% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 37% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass yds | 268.5 | 278 | 54% / 51% | 130 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.3 | 72% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass att | 35.5 | 35 | 45% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Cmp | 23.5 | 23 | 45% / 51% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 40% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Pass yds | 266.5 | 274 | 54% / 50% | 280 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 1.5 | 3 | 75% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.5 | 72% / 43% | -3 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Pass att | 32.5 | 32 | 49% / 49% | 32 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Cmp | 22.5 | 21 | 41% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 37% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass yds | 256.5 | 265 | 54% / 50% | 281 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 40% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 6.7 | 79% / 44% | -4 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass att | 34.5 | 35 | 50% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Cmp | 21.5 | 23 | 57% / 52% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Pass yds | 248.5 | 253 | 51% / 49% | 182 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 1.5 | 3 | 75% / 53% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 5.1 | 73% / 49% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass att | 33.5 | 34 | 55% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Cmp | 22.5 | 22 | 50% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass yds | 252.5 | 265 | 55% / 50% | 181 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 1.5 | 3 | 76% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 6.1 | 77% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass att | 32.5 | 31 | 44% / 49% | 47 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Cmp | 21.5 | 20 | 43% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Pass yds | 234.5 | 242 | 53% / 50% | 389 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 6.3 | 78% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Pass att | 32.5 | 33 | 50% / 53% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Cmp | 22.5 | 21 | 40% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass yds | 252.5 | 252 | 50% / 50% | 375 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 1.5 | 2 | 72% / 40% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 5.4 | 75% / 39% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass att | 33.5 | 33 | 47% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 51% / 52% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 46% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Pass yds | 228.5 | 220 | 47% / 51% | 196 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 1.5 | 3 | 74% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.7 | 73% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass att | 31.5 | 32 | 51% / 48% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 44% / 49% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 48% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Pass yds | 238.5 | 226 | 45% / 50% | 298 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 1.5 | 3 | 84% / 60% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass att | 32.5 | 32 | 46% / 49% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 44% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass yds | 232.5 | 227 | 49% / 49% | 245 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Pass yds | 241.5 | 227 | 44% / 50% | 189 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 5.1 | 73% / 46% | 16 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Pass yds | 240.5 | 235 | 47% / 50% | 110 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.7 | 71% / 44% | -4 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Pass yds | 246.5 | 223 | 38% / 51% | 160 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 2.9 | 66% / 45% | 18 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Pass yds | 255.5 | 226 | 37% / 50% | 320 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 3.3 | 66% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 54% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Pass yds | 261.5 | 253 | 47% / 50% | 183 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 49% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Pass yds | 249.5 | 226 | 39% / 50% | 243 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Pass yds | 241.5 | 225 | 42% / 51% | 295 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Pass yds | 256.5 | 240 | 44% / 50% | 293 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 2.9 | 63% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Pass yds | 242.5 | 237 | 48% / 50% | 298 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Pass yds | 244.5 | 241 | 49% / 50% | 279 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass yds | 230.5 | 241 | 55% / 51% | 154 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Pass yds | 237.5 | 225 | 45% / 51% | 260 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 1.4 | 55% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Pass yds | 209.5 | 196 | 43% / 51% | 224 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 1.9 | 57% / 42% | -1 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 37% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Pass yds | 218.5 | 206 | 44% / 51% | 221 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 1.9 | 59% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass yds | 250.5 | 241 | 46% / 50% | 216 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Pass yds | 268.5 | 251 | 42% / 50% | 317 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.6 | 71% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Pass yds | 250.5 | 257 | 53% / 50% | 317 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 3.5 | 65% / 40% | -1 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Pass yds | 250.5 | 240 | 46% / 49% | 328 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.0 | 67% / 49% | -4 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 64% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Pass yds | 270.5 | 279 | 53% / 50% | 258 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.4 | 68% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 67% / 66% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Pass yds | 196.5 | 202 | 53% / 48% | 294 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 2.9 | 58% / 52% | -1 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 37% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Pass yds | 216.5 | 196 | 40% / 50% | 279 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rush yds | 2.5 | 5.0 | 61% / 50% | -2 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Pass yds | 242.5 | 235 | 47% / 50% | 229 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rush yds | 2.5 | 7.2 | 68% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Pass yds | 253.5 | 257 | 52% / 50% | 190 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 24% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Pass yds | 250.5 | 195 | 24% / 50% | 162 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rush yds | 2.5 | 5.9 | 63% / 48% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Pass yds | 262.5 | 223 | 33% / 49% | 231 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 6.7 | 71% / 52% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Pass yds | 279.5 | 245 | 35% / 50% | 226 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rush yds | 2.5 | 8.5 | 71% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 53% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Pass yds | 277.5 | 234 | 33% / 49% | 222 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rush yds | 4.5 | 10 | 68% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Pass yds | 256.5 | 233 | 40% / 50% | 319 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 11 | 67% / 48% | 14 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Pass yds | 248.5 | 225 | 39% / 51% | 269 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 11 | 76% / 49% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 26% / 36% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Pass yds | 231.5 | 188 | 29% / 52% | 307 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 2.5 | 8.1 | 72% / 49% | 17 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Pass yds | 220.5 | – | – / 50% | 334 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rush yds | 1.5 | – | – / 52% | 11 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Over 37.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Over 281.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Over 250.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 250.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 250.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 250.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 239.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 239.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 239.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 239.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 31.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 31.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 31.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 21.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 255.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 255.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 255.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 33.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 33.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 269.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 269.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 269.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 232.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 232.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 232.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 232.5 pass yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 35.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 35.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 23.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 2.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 281.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 281.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 281.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 33.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 33.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 23.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 265.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 33.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 22.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 258.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 258.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 258.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 35.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology