QB · ATL · 88 lines since 2023
Michael Penix Jr. Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Michael Penix Jr., what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 8% — we make it 12%
- Line 29.5 pass attempts — we project 28 (P(over) 44%)
- Line 18.5 completions — we project 18 (P(over) 49%)
- Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 37%)
- Line 218.5 pass yds — we project 205 (P(over) 44%)
- Line 0.5 rush yds — we project 7.1 (P(over) 77%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 7, under 7 (14 graded)
- Passing TDs over 4, under 10 (14 graded)
- Rushing yards over 4, under 9 (13 graded)
- Anytime TD over 2, under 12 (14 graded)
- Pass attempts over 5, under 4 (9 graded)
- Completions over 5, under 4 (9 graded)
- Rush attempts over 2, under 5 (7 graded)
Our calls on him: model 14–9 · Short week 0–1 · Pressure 2–2 · Big underdog (6.5+) 0–2 · High total (48.5+) 3–2 · Dome team outdoors 2–2 · Starters out on defense 2–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 8% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 29.5 | 28 | 44% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 18.5 | 18 | 49% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 45% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 218.5 | 205 | 44% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 7.1 | 77% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 224.5 | 211 | 43% / 50% | 223 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 4.5 | 7.9 | 62% / 50% | -2 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | – | – / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | – | – / 68% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Pass yds | 204.5 | – | – / 50% | 256 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 4.5 | – | – / 51% | -2 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass att | 31.5 | 32 | 50% / 49% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Cmp | 19.5 | 19 | 49% / 48% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass yds | 225.5 | 223 | 49% / 50% | 175 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 7.3 | 52% / 51% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass att | 34.5 | 35 | 53% / 51% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 53% / 52% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass yds | 232.5 | 238 | 53% / 51% | 177 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 7.1 | 53% / 52% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Pass att | 32.5 | 32 | 49% / 49% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 57% / 51% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 37% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass yds | 225.5 | 208 | 42% / 51% | 221 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 5.4 | 50% / 49% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass att | 30.5 | 32 | 57% / 51% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 55% / 52% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass yds | 221.5 | 220 | 49% / 50% | 241 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 7.8 | 54% / 48% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass att | 31.5 | 32 | 52% / 48% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 55% / 54% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass yds | 225.5 | 225 | 50% / 50% | 250 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 7.5 | 7.8 | 51% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Pass att | 31.5 | 32 | 52% / 48% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 51% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 40% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass yds | 219.5 | 216 | 48% / 49% | 313 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 8.8 | 63% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass att | 29.5 | 31 | 58% / 52% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 52% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass yds | 214.5 | 229 | 57% / 50% | 172 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 6.0 | 53% / 50% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass att | 33.5 | 33 | 48% / 49% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 47% / 47% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass yds | 229.5 | 218 | 45% / 53% | 135 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 6.9 | 40% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Pass att | 33.5 | 33 | 45% / 51% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 46% / 47% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass yds | 233.5 | 229 | 48% / 49% | 298 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 60% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 2.2 | 37% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 49% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Pass yds | 219.5 | 242 | 60% / 50% | 312 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Pass yds | 201.5 | 197 | 48% / 50% | 223 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 4.7 | 28% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | – | – / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Pass yds | 225.5 | – | – / 50% | 202 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 7.5 | – | – / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | – | – / 3% | – | void |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 3% | – | void |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 224.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 4.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 204.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 19.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 225.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 34.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 34.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 21.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 232.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 225.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 225.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 30.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 19.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 221.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 221.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 6.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 31.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 225.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 5.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 29.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 214.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 214.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 229.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 9.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Under 33.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 5.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 219.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 219.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 219.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 201.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 201.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 11.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology