WR · PIT · 232 lines since 2023

Michael Pittman Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Michael Pittman, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 22% — we make it 21%
Line 25.5 rec yds — we project 30 (P(over) 57%)
Line 2.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 57%)

Over/under record by market

Receiving yards over 39, under 32 (71 graded)
Receptions over 39, under 31 (70 graded)
Anytime TD over 19, under 53 (72 graded)
Longest reception over 5, under 11 (16 graded)

Our calls on him: model 34–44 · Short week 1–0 · Starters out on defense 3–2 · Dome team outdoors 6–12 · Middle of the field 8–5 · Pre-snap motion 12–3 · Missed tackles 4–3 · Play action 2–1 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1 · Explosive plays 3–0 · Contested catches 0–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

Michael Pittman prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 22%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec yds	25.5	30	57% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec	2.5	3	57% / 48%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 22%	0	under
2026 W4	Rec yds	34.5	30	44% / 50%	15	under
2026 W4	Rec	3.5	3	42% / 43%	2	under
2026 W3	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 20%	0	under
2026 W3	Rec yds	26.5	30	56% / 50%	16	under
2026 W3	Rec	2.5	3	63% / 56%	2	under
2026 W1	Any TD	–	46% TD chance	46% / 31%	0	under
2026 W1	Rec yds	37.5	68	77% / 50%	58	over
2026 W1	Rec	3.5	6	80% / 56%	3	under
2025 W18	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 19%	0	under
2025 W17	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 28%	0	under
2025 W17	Long rec	16.5	21	66% / 50%	12	under
2025 W17	Rec yds	44.5	51	57% / 51%	16	under
2025 W17	Rec	4.5	5	57% / 51%	2	under
2025 W16	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 24%	0	under
2025 W16	Long rec	14.5	20	71% / 50%	14	under
2025 W16	Rec yds	32.5	48	68% / 51%	32	under
2025 W16	Rec	3.5	5	70% / 51%	4	over
2025 W15	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 18%	0	under
2025 W15	Long rec	15.5	16	52% / 49%	12	under
2025 W15	Rec yds	31.5	38	60% / 50%	26	under
2025 W15	Rec	3.5	5	70% / 57%	3	under
2025 W14	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 33%	0	under
2025 W14	Long rec	17.5	22	64% / 51%	24	over
2025 W14	Rec yds	45.5	52	56% / 50%	79	over
2025 W14	Rec	4.5	5	55% / 52%	9	over
2025 W13	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 31%	0	under
2025 W13	Long rec	18.5	21	59% / 49%	13	under
2025 W13	Rec yds	47.5	50	53% / 50%	13	under
2025 W13	Rec	4.5	5	55% / 52%	1	under
2025 W12	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 27%	1	over
2025 W12	Long rec	18.5	23	62% / 51%	6	under
2025 W12	Rec yds	50.5	55	54% / 50%	27	under
2025 W12	Rec	4.5	5	55% / 53%	5	over
2025 W10	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 37%	0	under
2025 W10	Long rec	20.5	25	62% / 50%	10	under
2025 W10	Rec yds	56.5	58	51% / 50%	19	under
2025 W10	Rec	5.5	5	42% / 44%	2	under
2025 W9	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 37%	0	under
2025 W9	Long rec	19.5	24	65% / 51%	21	over
2025 W9	Rec yds	55.5	60	55% / 51%	115	over
2025 W9	Rec	5.5	5	42% / 45%	9	over
2025 W8	Any TD	–	39% TD chance	39% / 37%	1	over
2025 W8	Long rec	18.5	25	69% / 51%	21	over
2025 W8	Rec yds	47.5	58	59% / 50%	95	over
2025 W8	Rec	4.5	5	51% / 55%	8	over
2025 W7	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 35%	1	over
2025 W7	Long rec	18.5	24	68% / 49%	16	under
2025 W7	Rec yds	50.5	64	62% / 50%	58	over
2025 W7	Rec	5.5	6	55% / 43%	7	over
2025 W6	Any TD	–	38% TD chance	38% / 37%	0	under
2025 W6	Long rec	19.5	25	67% / 49%	14	under
2025 W6	Rec yds	50.5	63	61% / 50%	20	under
2025 W6	Rec	4.5	5	59% / 55%	2	under
2025 W5	Any TD	–	39% TD chance	39% / 40%	1	over
2025 W5	Long rec	20.5	27	70% / 50%	16	under
2025 W5	Rec yds	55.5	73	65% / 49%	39	under
2025 W5	Rec	4.5	6	67% / 59%	5	over
2025 W4	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 29%	1	over
2025 W4	Long rec	19.5	24	64% / 50%	17	under
2025 W4	Rec yds	53.5	64	59% / 50%	41	under
2025 W4	Rec	4.5	5	64% / 55%	5	over
2025 W3	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 29%	1	over
2025 W3	Long rec	18.5	24	66% / 50%	20	over
2025 W3	Rec yds	45.5	56	59% / 50%	73	over
2025 W3	Rec	4.5	5	50% / 45%	6	over
2025 W2	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 29%	0	under
2025 W2	Long rec	17.5	20	58% / 51%	12	under
2025 W2	Rec yds	45.5	46	51% / 50%	40	under
2025 W2	Rec	4.5	4	48% / 48%	4	under
2025 W1	Any TD	–	42% TD chance	42% / 31%	1	over
2025 W1	Long rec	17.5	27	79% / 52%	27	over
2025 W1	Rec yds	46.5	74	74% / 50%	80	over
2025 W1	Rec	4.5	6	69% / 49%	6	over
2024 W18	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 36%	0	under
2024 W18	Rec yds	55.5	49	44% / 51%	72	over
2024 W18	Rec	5.5	4	31% / 42%	6	over
2024 W17	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 36%	1	over
2024 W17	Rec yds	49.5	48	48% / 50%	109	over
2024 W17	Rec	4.5	4	40% / 52%	9	over
2024 W16	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 30%	0	under
2024 W16	Rec yds	48.5	56	56% / 50%	19	under
2024 W16	Rec	3.5	5	68% / 60%	2	under
2024 W15	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 26%	0	under
2024 W15	Rec yds	42.5	53	60% / 50%	58	over
2024 W15	Rec	3.5	5	68% / 53%	6	over
2024 W13	Any TD	–	40% TD chance	40% / 33%	0	under
2024 W13	Rec yds	51.5	71	67% / 51%	42	under
2024 W13	Rec	4.5	6	69% / 47%	5	over
2024 W12	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 26%	0	under
2024 W12	Rec yds	45.5	47	51% / 50%	96	over
2024 W12	Rec	3.5	4	60% / 55%	6	over
2024 W11	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 22%	0	under
2024 W11	Rec yds	31.5	37	58% / 51%	46	over
2024 W11	Rec	2.5	3	68% / 58%	5	over
2024 W9	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 33%	0	under
2024 W9	Rec yds	52.5	48	46% / 50%	14	under
2024 W9	Rec	4.5	4	47% / 57%	1	under
2024 W8	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 26%	0	under
2024 W8	Rec yds	44.5	49	55% / 49%	16	under
2024 W8	Rec	3.5	5	66% / 55%	1	under
2024 W7	Any TD	–	34% TD chance	34% / 30%	0	under
2024 W7	Rec yds	45.5	53	59% / 49%	63	over
2024 W7	Rec	3.5	5	66% / 58%	3	under
2024 W6	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 29%	1	over
2024 W6	Rec yds	49.5	50	51% / 50%	35	under
2024 W6	Rec	4.5	5	53% / 53%	3	under
2024 W5	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 33%	1	over
2024 W5	Rec yds	62.5	56	45% / 51%	37	under
2024 W5	Rec	5.5	5	46% / 54%	5	under
2024 W4	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 26%	0	under
2024 W4	Rec yds	46.5	42	44% / 50%	113	over
2024 W4	Rec	4.5	4	47% / 42%	6	over
2024 W3	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 28%	0	under
2024 W3	Rec yds	44.5	49	55% / 50%	36	under
2024 W3	Rec	4.5	5	52% / 47%	4	under
2024 W2	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 36%	0	under
2024 W2	Rec yds	58.5	54	45% / 50%	21	under
2024 W2	Rec	5.5	5	43% / 43%	3	under
2024 W1	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 36%	0	under
2024 W1	Rec yds	66.5	79	60% / 50%	31	under
2024 W1	Rec	5.5	7	67% / 55%	4	under
2023 W18	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 42%	0	under
2023 W18	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 40%	0	under
2023 W18	Rec yds	76.5	75	48% / 50%	44	under
2023 W18	Rec yds	76.5	75	48% / 50%	44	under
2023 W18	Rec	6.5	6	50% / 56%	5	under
2023 W18	Rec	7.5	6	40% / 47%	5	under
2023 W17	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 43%	0	under
2023 W17	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 40%	0	under
2023 W17	Rec yds	72.5	68	46% / 50%	46	under
2023 W17	Rec yds	72.5	68	46% / 50%	46	under
2023 W17	Rec	6.5	6	43% / 54%	5	under
2023 W17	Rec	6.5	6	43% / 56%	5	under
2023 W15	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 40%	0	under
2023 W15	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 39%	0	under
2023 W15	Rec yds	75.5	71	46% / 49%	78	over
2023 W15	Rec yds	75.5	71	46% / 50%	78	over
2023 W15	Rec	7.5	7	41% / 43%	4	under
2023 W15	Rec	7.5	7	41% / 41%	4	under
2023 W14	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 39%	0	under
2023 W14	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 38%	0	under
2023 W14	Rec yds	75.5	69	45% / 48%	95	over
2023 W14	Rec yds	76.5	69	44% / 51%	95	over
2023 W14	Rec	7.5	7	41% / 50%	8	over
2023 W14	Rec	7.5	7	41% / 51%	8	over
2023 W13	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 40%	1	over
2023 W13	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 41%	1	over
2023 W13	Rec yds	72.5	67	45% / 49%	105	over
2023 W13	Rec yds	70.5	67	47% / 48%	105	over
2023 W13	Rec	6.5	6	46% / 52%	11	over
2023 W13	Rec	6.5	6	46% / 56%	11	over
2023 W12	Any TD	–	36% TD chance	36% / 41%	0	under
2023 W12	Any TD	–	36% TD chance	36% / 41%	0	under
2023 W12	Rec yds	70.5	67	46% / 50%	107	over
2023 W12	Rec yds	70.5	67	46% / 50%	107	over
2023 W12	Rec	6.5	6	43% / 46%	10	over
2023 W12	Rec	6.5	6	43% / 50%	10	over
2023 W10	Any TD	–	35% TD chance	35% / 35%	0	under
2023 W10	Any TD	–	35% TD chance	35% / 40%	0	under
2023 W10	Rec yds	65.5	67	52% / 50%	84	over
2023 W10	Rec yds	65.5	67	52% / 50%	84	over
2023 W10	Rec	5.5	6	60% / 56%	8	over
2023 W10	Rec	5.5	6	60% / 57%	8	over
2023 W9	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 36%	0	under
2023 W9	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 35%	0	under
2023 W9	Rec yds	59.5	63	53% / 51%	64	over
2023 W9	Rec yds	59.5	63	53% / 52%	64	over
2023 W9	Rec	5.5	5	50% / 47%	8	over
2023 W9	Rec	5.5	5	50% / 50%	8	over
2023 W8	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 36%	1	over
2023 W8	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 33%	1	over
2023 W8	Rec yds	60.5	60	50% / 51%	40	under
2023 W8	Rec yds	58.5	60	51% / 53%	40	under
2023 W8	Rec	5.5	5	47% / 47%	8	over
2023 W8	Rec	5.5	5	47% / 48%	8	over
2023 W7	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 28%	1	over
2023 W7	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 30%	1	over
2023 W7	Rec yds	50.5	52	52% / 50%	83	over
2023 W7	Rec yds	52.5	52	50% / 50%	83	over
2023 W7	Rec	5.5	6	52% / 44%	2	under
2023 W7	Rec	4.5	6	63% / 57%	2	under
2023 W6	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 31%	0	under
2023 W6	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 36%	0	under
2023 W6	Rec yds	60.5	54	44% / 50%	109	over
2023 W6	Rec yds	60.5	54	44% / 50%	109	over
2023 W6	Rec	5.5	5	48% / 55%	9	over
2023 W6	Rec	5.5	5	48% / 56%	9	over
2023 W5	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 32%	0	under
2023 W5	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 35%	0	under
2023 W5	Rec yds	60.5	58	48% / 50%	52	under
2023 W5	Rec yds	59.5	58	49% / 50%	52	under
2023 W5	Rec	5.5	6	52% / 48%	5	under
2023 W5	Rec	5.5	6	52% / 48%	5	under
2023 W4	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 39%	0	under
2023 W4	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 32%	0	under
2023 W4	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 34%	0	under
2023 W4	Rec yds	63.5	65	51% / 45%	15	under
2023 W4	Rec yds	59.5	65	54% / 49%	15	under
2023 W4	Rec yds	60.5	65	53% / 50%	15	under
2023 W4	Rec	5.5	6	61% / 57%	1	under
2023 W4	Rec	6.5	6	47% / 45%	1	under
2023 W4	Rec	5.5	6	61% / 56%	1	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 33%	0	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 33%	0	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 38%	0	under
2023 W3	Rec yds	58.5	65	57% / 50%	77	over
2023 W3	Rec yds	59.5	65	55% / 49%	77	over
2023 W3	Rec yds	60.5	65	55% / 50%	77	over
2023 W3	Rec	5.5	7	65% / 48%	9	over
2023 W3	Rec	5.5	7	65% / 49%	9	over
2023 W3	Rec	5.5	7	65% / 49%	9	over
2023 W2	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 30%	0	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 31%	0	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 38%	0	under
2023 W2	Rec yds	53.5	64	60% / 50%	56	over
2023 W2	Rec yds	54.5	64	59% / 48%	56	over
2023 W2	Rec yds	54.5	64	59% / 49%	56	over
2023 W2	Rec	4.5	6	74% / 55%	8	over
2023 W2	Rec	4.5	6	74% / 55%	8	over
2023 W2	Rec	4.5	6	74% / 55%	8	over
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 31%	1	over
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 31%	1	over
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 35%	1	over
2023 W1	Rec yds	45.5	–	– / 50%	97	over
2023 W1	Rec yds	48.5	–	– / 48%	97	over
2023 W1	Rec yds	50.5	–	– / 50%	97	over
2023 W1	Rec	4.5	–	– / 45%	8	over
2023 W1	Rec	4.5	–	– / 44%	8	over

Our calls

2026 W4 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Under 34.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Over 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Over 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2025 W17 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 44.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 32.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 31.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 31.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 31.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 45.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Over 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 47.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 50.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Under 50.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Under 50.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 56.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Under 55.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
2025 W9 Over 55.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 55.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Over 47.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Over 50.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W6 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Over 50.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Under 50.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W5 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W5 Over 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W5 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Under 53.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Over 53.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Under 53.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Under 45.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
2025 W3 Over 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Over 45.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W2 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W1 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W1 Over 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology