WR · ARI · 188 lines since 2023

Michael Wilson Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Michael Wilson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 43% — we make it 43%
Line 24.5 yds longest rec — we project 30 (P(over) 65%)
Line 79.5 rec yds — we project 90 (P(over) 57%)
Line 6.5 receptions — we project 7 (P(over) 54%)

Over/under record by market

Receiving yards over 27, under 23 (50 graded)
Receptions over 25, under 24 (49 graded)
Anytime TD over 15, under 49 (64 graded)
Longest reception over 9, under 7 (16 graded)

Our calls on him: model 39–34 · Starters out on defense 6–3 · Dome team outdoors 7–8 · Missed tackles 1–0 · Pre-snap motion 2–1 · Short week 1–0 · Middle of the field 1–2 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0 · Explosive plays 0–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

Michael Wilson prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	43% TD chance	43% / 43%	–	…
2026 W5	Long rec	24.5	30	65% / 51%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec yds	79.5	90	57% / 51%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec	6.5	7	54% / 49%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 32%	0	under
2026 W4	Rec yds	58.5	56	48% / 51%	95	over
2026 W4	Rec	4.5	5	53% / 57%	7	over
2026 W3	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 27%	1	over
2026 W3	Rec yds	45.5	47	51% / 51%	89	over
2026 W3	Rec	3.5	4	60% / 57%	11	over
2026 W2	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 21%	0	under
2026 W2	Rec yds	37.5	42	56% / 50%	18	under
2026 W2	Rec	3.5	4	57% / 55%	2	under
2026 W1	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 24%	0	under
2026 W1	Rec yds	43.5	58	65% / 50%	56	over
2026 W1	Rec	3.5	5	73% / 53%	5	over
2025 W18	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 37%	1	over
2025 W18	Long rec	24.5	21	40% / 49%	43	over
2025 W18	Rec yds	75.5	50	28% / 51%	99	over
2025 W18	Rec	5.5	5	39% / 57%	5	under
2025 W17	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 36%	1	over
2025 W17	Long rec	20.5	25	62% / 51%	38	over
2025 W17	Rec yds	49.5	59	60% / 49%	89	over
2025 W17	Rec	4.5	5	56% / 44%	5	over
2025 W16	Any TD	–	35% TD chance	35% / 38%	1	over
2025 W16	Long rec	20.5	26	67% / 50%	32	over
2025 W16	Rec yds	55.5	70	64% / 49%	52	under
2025 W16	Rec	4.5	6	67% / 56%	2	under
2025 W15	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 32%	1	over
2025 W15	Long rec	22.5	21	44% / 50%	17	under
2025 W15	Rec yds	66.5	62	46% / 51%	54	under
2025 W15	Rec	5.5	7	63% / 54%	5	under
2025 W14	Any TD	–	36% TD chance	36% / 38%	1	over
2025 W14	Long rec	24.5	26	53% / 49%	25	over
2025 W14	Rec yds	71.5	82	59% / 50%	142	over
2025 W14	Rec	5.5	8	74% / 59%	11	over
2025 W13	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 31%	0	under
2025 W13	Long rec	20.5	23	59% / 51%	16	under
2025 W13	Rec yds	52.5	62	59% / 50%	36	under
2025 W13	Rec	4.5	6	66% / 51%	3	under
2025 W12	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 32%	0	under
2025 W12	Long rec	22.5	25	57% / 49%	31	over
2025 W12	Rec yds	60.5	65	55% / 50%	118	over
2025 W12	Rec	5.5	6	53% / 43%	10	over
2025 W11	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 30%	0	under
2025 W11	Long rec	19.5	21	56% / 51%	34	over
2025 W11	Rec yds	46.5	45	49% / 50%	185	over
2025 W11	Rec	3.5	4	57% / 57%	15	over
2025 W10	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 20%	0	under
2025 W10	Long rec	16.5	16	48% / 50%	15	under
2025 W10	Rec yds	30.5	27	45% / 49%	34	over
2025 W10	Rec	2.5	3	53% / 51%	4	over
2025 W9	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 27%	0	under
2025 W9	Long rec	14.5	18	59% / 51%	50	over
2025 W9	Rec yds	27.5	29	52% / 50%	61	over
2025 W9	Rec	2.5	2	49% / 54%	3	over
2025 W7	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 21%	0	under
2025 W7	Long rec	13.5	16	56% / 49%	18	over
2025 W7	Rec yds	22.5	26	56% / 50%	40	over
2025 W7	Rec	2.5	3	53% / 45%	3	over
2025 W6	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 17%	0	under
2025 W6	Long rec	13.5	16	57% / 51%	30	over
2025 W6	Rec yds	20.5	25	57% / 50%	44	over
2025 W6	Rec	2.5	2	47% / 43%	4	over
2025 W5	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 24%	0	under
2025 W5	Long rec	15.5	17	56% / 50%	10	under
2025 W5	Rec yds	25.5	28	53% / 48%	16	under
2025 W5	Rec	2.5	2	47% / 45%	2	under
2025 W4	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 21%	0	under
2025 W4	Long rec	13.5	17	60% / 51%	6	under
2025 W4	Rec yds	23.5	28	56% / 50%	15	under
2025 W4	Rec	2.5	3	51% / 44%	3	over
2025 W3	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 20%	0	under
2025 W3	Long rec	15.5	18	56% / 50%	5	under
2025 W3	Rec yds	25.5	30	57% / 50%	5	under
2025 W3	Rec	2.5	3	52% / 45%	1	under
2025 W2	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 20%	1	over
2025 W2	Long rec	14.5	20	64% / 49%	11	under
2025 W2	Rec yds	24.5	33	61% / 49%	11	under
2025 W2	Rec	2.5	3	52% / 45%	1	under
2025 W1	Any TD	–	35% TD chance	35% / 21%	0	under
2025 W1	Rec yds	24.5	44	71% / 50%	5	under
2025 W1	Rec	2.5	4	69% / 42%	1	under
2024 W18	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 26%	–	void
2024 W17	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 22%	0	under
2024 W17	Rec yds	29.5	31	52% / 50%	22	under
2024 W17	Rec	2.5	3	55% / 52%	4	over
2024 W16	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 24%	0	under
2024 W16	Rec yds	29.5	34	56% / 49%	44	over
2024 W16	Rec	2.5	3	55% / 49%	2	under
2024 W15	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 31%	0	under
2024 W15	Rec yds	33.5	37	55% / 50%	9	under
2024 W15	Rec	2.5	3	60% / 59%	2	under
2024 W14	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 24%	1	over
2024 W14	Rec yds	30.5	36	57% / 50%	57	over
2024 W14	Rec	2.5	3	60% / 55%	2	under
2024 W13	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 23%	0	under
2024 W13	Rec yds	29.5	34	58% / 50%	55	over
2024 W13	Rec	2.5	3	60% / 54%	5	over
2024 W12	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 24%	0	under
2024 W12	Rec yds	28.5	32	55% / 50%	54	over
2024 W12	Rec	2.5	3	58% / 54%	2	under
2024 W10	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 23%	0	under
2024 W10	Rec yds	27.5	29	52% / 51%	24	under
2024 W10	Rec	2.5	3	55% / 48%	3	over
2024 W9	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 24%	0	under
2024 W9	Rec yds	32.5	35	53% / 49%	0	under
2024 W9	Rec	2.5	3	63% / 59%	0	under
2024 W8	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 25%	1	over
2024 W8	Rec yds	30.5	31	51% / 50%	31	over
2024 W8	Rec	2.5	3	57% / 57%	5	over
2024 W7	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 25%	0	under
2024 W7	Rec yds	32.5	34	53% / 50%	15	under
2024 W7	Rec	2.5	3	62% / 56%	1	under
2024 W6	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 24%	1	over
2024 W6	Rec yds	38.5	40	52% / 51%	21	under
2024 W6	Rec	3.5	4	53% / 46%	2	under
2024 W5	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 2%	0	under
2024 W5	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 24%	0	under
2024 W5	Rec yds	36.5	33	46% / 50%	78	over
2024 W5	Rec	3.5	3	43% / 43%	5	over
2024 W4	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 30%	0	under
2024 W4	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 3%	0	under
2024 W4	Rec yds	45.5	39	42% / 50%	38	under
2024 W4	Rec	3.5	3	46% / 56%	3	under
2024 W3	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 2%	0	under
2024 W3	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 22%	0	under
2024 W3	Rec yds	27.5	27	49% / 50%	64	over
2024 W3	Rec	2.5	2	45% / 45%	8	over
2024 W2	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 27%	0	under
2024 W2	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 2%	0	under
2024 W2	Rec yds	29.5	25	44% / 51%	31	over
2024 W2	Rec	2.5	2	40% / 51%	2	under
2024 W1	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 2%	1	over
2024 W1	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 22%	1	over
2024 W1	Rec yds	27.5	30	53% / 50%	5	under
2024 W1	Rec	2.5	3	54% / 48%	1	under
2023 W18	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 28%	0	under
2023 W18	Rec yds	36.5	34	47% / 50%	95	over
2023 W18	Rec	3.5	3	33% / 45%	6	over
2023 W17	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 26%	1	over
2023 W17	Rec yds	31.5	37	56% / 50%	35	over
2023 W17	Rec	2.5	3	59% / 52%	4	over
2023 W16	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 29%	0	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 2%	0	under
2023 W16	Rec yds	34.5	37	53% / 50%	0	under
2023 W16	Rec	2.5	3	65% / 56%	0	under
2023 W15	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 24%	0	under
2023 W15	Rec yds	30.5	31	51% / 49%	0	under
2023 W15	Rec	2.5	3	59% / 57%	0	under
2023 W13	Any TD	–	–	– / 28%	–	void
2023 W11	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 29%	–	void
2023 W11	Rec yds	35.5	33	46% / 50%	–	void
2023 W11	Rec	3.5	3	36% / 42%	–	void
2023 W10	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 3%	0	under
2023 W10	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 24%	0	under
2023 W10	Rec yds	35.5	28	40% / 50%	34	under
2023 W10	Rec	3.5	3	31% / 40%	3	under
2023 W8	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 23%	0	under
2023 W8	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 3%	0	under
2023 W8	Rec yds	29.5	31	52% / 50%	58	over
2023 W8	Rec	2.5	3	62% / 53%	4	over
2023 W7	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 22%	0	under
2023 W7	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 2%	0	under
2023 W7	Rec yds	31.5	28	45% / 50%	26	under
2023 W7	Rec	2.5	3	57% / 54%	3	over
2023 W6	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 4%	0	under
2023 W6	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 24%	0	under
2023 W6	Rec yds	34.5	41	59% / 50%	62	over
2023 W6	Rec	2.5	4	72% / 56%	3	over
2023 W5	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 28%	0	under
2023 W5	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 3%	0	under
2023 W5	Rec yds	35.5	40	56% / 50%	18	under
2023 W5	Rec	2.5	4	71% / 59%	1	under
2023 W4	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 2%	1	over
2023 W4	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 17%	1	over
2023 W4	Rec yds	24.5	35	65% / 51%	76	over
2023 W4	Rec	2.5	4	72% / 44%	7	over
2023 W3	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 3%	0	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 15%	0	under
2023 W3	Rec yds	23.5	25	52% / 50%	86	over
2023 W3	Rec	2.5	3	56% / 44%	2	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 19%	0	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 3%	0	under
2023 W2	Rec yds	25.5	33	60% / 49%	56	over
2023 W2	Rec	2.5	3	68% / 47%	3	over
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 14%	0	under
2023 W1	Rec yds	22.5	–	– / 50%	19	under

Our calls

2026 W2 Over 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Over 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2025 W18 Under 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 75.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Under 75.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 49.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 49.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 49.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 55.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 66.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 66.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Over 71.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 52.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 52.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Over 30.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Under 30.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
2025 W9 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 27.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Over 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W6 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W6 Over 20.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W6 Over 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W5 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Over 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Under 23.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W3 Under 25.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Over 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W3 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W2 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W2 Over 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W2 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W1 Over 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W16 Under 29.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
2024 W16 Over 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W16 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W15 Over 33.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology