WR · SF · 141 lines since 2023
Mike Evans Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Mike Evans, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 33% — we make it 25%
- Line 20.5 yds longest rec — we project 22 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 50.5 rec yds — we project 49 (P(over) 49%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 63%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 19, under 24 (43 graded)
- Receptions over 21, under 22 (43 graded)
- Anytime TD over 23, under 20 (43 graded)
- Longest reception over 1, under 7 (8 graded)
Our calls on him: Explosive plays 5–3 · Middle of the field 5–5 · Pre-snap motion 5–8 · model 24–23 · Short week 1–2 · Starters out on defense 2–2 · Missed tackles 2–2 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0 · Play action 3–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 33% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 20.5 | 22 | 56% / 52% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 49 | 49% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 63% / 58% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 43 | 50% / 50% | 76 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 53% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 52 | 47% / 50% | 34 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 52 | 51% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 40 | 42% / 50% | 49 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 21.5 | 21 | 49% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 39 | 35% / 51% | 34 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 26% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 22.5 | 23 | 50% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 43 | 36% / 50% | 31 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 29% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 24.5 | 24 | 48% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 45 | 33% / 49% | 31 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 28% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 18.5 | 18 | 50% / 51% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 29 | 37% / 50% | 132 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 27% / 45% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 23.5 | 26 | 57% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 64 | 50% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 48% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 24.5 | 27 | 58% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 69 | 51% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 48% / 46% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 23.5 | 22 | 45% / 49% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 48 | 34% / 50% | 56 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 33% / 43% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 23.5 | 31 | 69% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 93 | 64% / 50% | 51 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | 7 | 66% / 52% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 64% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 99.5 | 85 | 40% / 50% | 89 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 38% / 56% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 58% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 85.5 | 87 | 51% / 50% | 97 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 52% / 55% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 83.5 | 74 | 44% / 51% | 69 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 57% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 60 | 41% / 51% | 159 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 57% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 75.5 | 63 | 40% / 50% | 69 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 34% / 46% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 47% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 49 | 35% / 50% | 118 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 35% / 55% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 40 | 35% / 50% | 68 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 63 | 55% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 72 | 65% / 51% | 34 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 65% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 63 | 54% / 50% | 62 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 50% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 54 | 37% / 50% | 94 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 45% / 55% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 51 | 37% / 48% | 17 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 53 | 37% / 50% | 42 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 68 | 49% / 51% | 61 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 55% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 59 | 46% / 51% | 22 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 69 | 54% / 51% | 70 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 47% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 68 | 52% / 51% | 86 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 55% / 52% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 70 | 52% / 50% | 57 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 58% / 57% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 74.5 | 73 | 49% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 48% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 66 | 54% / 50% | 162 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 48% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 68 | 51% / 51% | 70 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 56 | 49% / 51% | 43 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 44% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 59 | 48% / 50% | 143 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 44% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 55 | 49% / 51% | 87 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 62 | 52% / 50% | 39 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 64% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 58 | 50% / 51% | 82 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 67 | 54% / 50% | 49 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 63% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 79 | 64% / 48% | 40 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 72% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 73 | 63% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 70% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 61 | 56% / 51% | 171 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 64% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 56.5 | – | – / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 59% | 6 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Under 48.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Under 48.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Under 48.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Under 43.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 43.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 49.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 54.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 57.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 57.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 64.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 39.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 39.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 63.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 63.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 68.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 65.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 71.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 99.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 99.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 99.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 85.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 83.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 70.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 75.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Over 65.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 65.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Over 57.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 55.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Over 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 59.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 59.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 68.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 65.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Over 68.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 68.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W18 Over 62.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W18 Under 62.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W17 Under 62.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology