TE · CIN · 169 lines since 2023
Mike Gesicki Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Mike Gesicki, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 24% — we make it 20%
- Line 14.5 yds longest rec — we project 16 (P(over) 53%)
- Line 27.5 rec yds — we project 24 (P(over) 44%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 45%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 23, under 28 (51 graded)
- Receptions over 27, under 23 (50 graded)
- Anytime TD over 8, under 43 (51 graded)
- Longest reception over 5, under 8 (13 graded)
Our calls on him: model 40–30 · Starters out on defense 4–3 · Pre-snap motion 1–0 · Freezing 2–3 · Short week 3–0 · Middle of the field 1–0 · Missed tackles 1–0 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 24% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 53% / 52% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 24 | 44% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 53% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 24 | 45% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 20 | 42% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 23 | 48% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 27 | 60% / 50% | 78 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 48% / 52% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 23 | 47% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 13.5 | 17 | 59% / 51% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 27 | 53% / 51% | 47 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 13.5 | 16 | 60% / 51% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 28 | 54% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 47% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 27 | 36% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 12.5 | 12 | 49% / 51% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 19 | 47% / 50% | 86 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 49% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 27 | 39% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 14.5 | 11 | 39% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 16 | 32% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 18% / 43% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 11.5 | 11 | 46% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 18 | 42% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 10.5 | 13 | 60% / 49% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 21 | 63% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 71% / 56% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 12.5 | 14 | 56% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 26 | 58% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 62% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 12.5 | 13 | 53% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 23 | 54% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 12.5 | 15 | 59% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 24 | 59% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 40% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 12.5 | 17 | 65% / 50% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 30 | 64% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 61% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 38 | 57% / 51% | 68 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 45% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 31 | 55% / 50% | 86 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 59% / 50% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 30 | 52% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 25 | 55% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2.5 | 50% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 26 | 51% / 51% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 48% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 24 | 49% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 30 | 55% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 60% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 29 | 26% / 51% | 30 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 27% / 48% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 24 | 34% / 50% | 100 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 33% / 50% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 16 | 45% / 51% | 73 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 61% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 14 | 48% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 22 | 52% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 24 | 48% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 53% / 53% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 31 | 51% / 49% | -9 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 35 | 58% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 66% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 23 | 49% / 50% | 91 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 51% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 16 | 40% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 30% / 43% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 16 | 41% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 9 | 28% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 8.5 | 30% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 61% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 8.9 | 64% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 75% / 58% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 8.7 | 60% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 13 | 40% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 13 | 43% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 13 | 34% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 28% / 38% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 14 | 38% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 62% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 13 | 41% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 15 | 55% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 65% / 49% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 14 | 37% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 40% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 13 | 38% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 62% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 11 | 33% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 13 | 33% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 6.0 | 28% / 52% | 33 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 50% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 19.5 | – | – / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | – | – / 60% | 3 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 24.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 24.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 24.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 25.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 38.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 20.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 20.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 35.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 32.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 32.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 24.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 24.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Over 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 50.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 50.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Over 36.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Over 14.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Over 20.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Over 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology