WR · CIN · 29 lines since 2023
Mitchell Tinsley Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Mitchell Tinsley, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 12% — we make it 24%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 1, under 2 (3 graded)
- Receptions over 2, under 1 (3 graded)
- Anytime TD over 2, under 17 (19 graded)
- Longest reception over 2, under 1 (3 graded)
Our calls on him: model 4–7 · Freezing 1–0 · Short week 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 12% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 16.5 | 9.1 | 36% / 48% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 10 | 28% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 12% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 13.5 | 9.3 | 41% / 51% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 11 | 31% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 59% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 11.5 | 0 | 18% / 50% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 0 | 13% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 8% / 49% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 5% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 4% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2025 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 28.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 22.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology