RB · NYG · 154 lines since 2023
Najee Harris Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Najee Harris, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 20% — we make it 10%
- Line 27.5 rush yds — we project 15 (P(over) 25%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 23, under 16 (39 graded)
- Receiving yards over 19, under 17 (36 graded)
- Receptions over 14, under 18 (32 graded)
- Anytime TD over 13, under 27 (40 graded)
- Rush attempts over 0, under 2 (2 graded)
- Longest reception over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
Our calls on him: model 22–25 · Missed tackles 12–11 · Pre-snap motion 2–4 · Short week 2–2 · Starters out on defense 3–2 · Light boxes 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 20% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 15 | 25% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 14 | 30% / 51% | 30 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 6.5 | 15% / 49% | 52 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 22% | – | void |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 9.6 | 37% / 49% | – | void |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 5.5 | 5.2 | 49% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 6.0 | 52% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 7.5 | 4 | 17% / 47% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 26.5 | 17 | 31% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 1.5 | 3.3 | 57% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 16 | 45% / 51% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 61% TD chance | 61% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 5.5 | 16 | 98% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 62 | 89% / 48% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 47% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 9.6 | 53% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rush yds | 47.5 | 53 | 57% / 51% | 36 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 10 | 62% / 48% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 42% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 44.5 | 45 | 51% / 51% | 74 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 13 | 56% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 66% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 45.5 | 49 | 54% / 50% | 42 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 13 | 49% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 52.5 | 52 | 50% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 50% TD chance | 50% / 55% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 14 | 51% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 64.5 | 68 | 53% / 50% | 53 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 10 | 49% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 58.5 | 60 | 53% / 50% | 75 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 9.4 | 53% / 50% | 13 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 48% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 73.5 | 60 | 36% / 51% | 41 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 11 | 58% / 51% | 30 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 50.5 | 62 | 63% / 49% | 63 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 11 | 54% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 67.5 | 66 | 48% / 50% | 53 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 50% TD chance | 50% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 11 | 55% / 51% | 17 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 66.5 | 66 | 49% / 52% | 114 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 12 | 45% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 54.5 | 45 | 37% / 52% | 102 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 16 | 61% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 50% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 58.5 | 53 | 43% / 51% | 106 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 56% TD chance | 56% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 21 | 58% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 71.5 | 74 | 53% / 51% | 42 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 50% TD chance | 50% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 14 | 52% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 44% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 68.5 | 72 | 54% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 7.7 | 51% / 49% | 16 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 46% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 54.5 | 48 | 43% / 50% | 70 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 7.2 | 49% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 61.5 | 49 | 36% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 7.6 | 51% / 49% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 54.5 | 47 | 39% / 50% | 70 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 4.8 | 55% / 51% | 21 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rush yds | 62.5 | 55 | 41% / 50% | 112 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 5.7 | 47% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rush yds | 54.5 | 56 | 52% / 50% | 122 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 6.8 | 44% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rush yds | 54.5 | 49 | 43% / 50% | 78 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 8.1 | 46% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rush yds | 52.5 | 58 | 56% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 5.4 | 43% / 51% | 19 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 52% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rush yds | 48.5 | 56 | 59% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 8.2 | 49% / 49% | 14 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 50% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rush yds | 58.5 | 64 | 56% / 53% | 63 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 8.9 | 51% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rush yds | 46.5 | 50 | 55% / 48% | 99 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 7.3 | 46% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rush yds | 42.5 | 44 | 53% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 47% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 8.7 | 47% / 48% | 14 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 1.5 | 26% / 40% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rush yds | 52.5 | 53 | 51% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 8.5 | 46% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 55% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rush yds | 44.5 | 52 | 61% / 49% | 69 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 8.2 | 49% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rush yds | 42.5 | 45 | 54% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 6.2 | 45% / 49% | 15 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rush yds | 52.5 | 52 | 49% / 49% | 53 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 6.5 | 43% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rush yds | 51.5 | 50 | 47% / 50% | 37 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 6.5 | 46% / 49% | 32 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rush yds | 57.5 | 55 | 47% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 7 | 41% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rush yds | 47.5 | 53 | 57% / 51% | 65 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 6.6 | 36% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 54.5 | 51 | 45% / 49% | 43 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 11.5 | – | – / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | – | – / 58% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rush yds | 46.5 | – | – / 51% | 31 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 23.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 21.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 14.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) void
- 2025 W3 Under 7.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 26.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 26.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 1.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 17.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 24.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 47.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 47.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 47.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 44.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 44.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 45.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Over 64.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 58.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 73.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 73.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 73.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 50.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Over 50.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 67.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Over 54.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 54.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Over 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Over 58.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 58.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Over 71.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 71.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Over 68.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 68.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 54.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 61.5 rush yds (Light boxes, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 61.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W1 Under 54.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W18 Under 62.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W18 Under 62.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W17 Over 54.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W16 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W16 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W16 Under 54.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W16 Under 54.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W16 Over 54.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W15 Under 52.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W15 Over 52.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W14 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W14 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology