WR · HOU · 149 lines since 2023
Nico Collins Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Nico Collins, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 44% — we make it 35%
- Line 26.5 yds longest rec — we project 25 (P(over) 47%)
- Line 77.5 rec yds — we project 62 (P(over) 37%)
- Line 5.5 receptions — we project 5 (P(over) 41%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 25, under 18 (43 graded)
- Receptions over 19, under 24 (43 graded)
- Anytime TD over 21, under 23 (44 graded)
- Longest reception over 9, under 6 (15 graded)
Our calls on him: model 26–34 · Pre-snap motion 11–7 · Middle of the field 10–8 · Missed tackles 4–7 · Freezing 1–1 · Dome team outdoors 6–5 · Short week 2–0 · Starters out on defense 2–2 · Explosive plays 3–4 · Play action 2–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 44% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 26.5 | 25 | 47% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 77.5 | 62 | 37% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 41% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 72.5 | 65 | 44% / 50% | 118 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 37% / 48% | 7 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 60 | 42% / 51% | 75 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 37% / 45% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 24.5 | 25 | 51% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 56 | 42% / 51% | 57 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 27.5 | 30 | 58% / 49% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 71 | 53% / 50% | 59 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 52% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 26.5 | 30 | 58% / 49% | 57 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 75.5 | 72 | 48% / 50% | 85 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 41% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 24.5 | 23 | 45% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 55 | 36% / 49% | 121 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 40% / 48% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 23.5 | 25 | 54% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 61 | 47% / 50% | 98 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 43% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 23.5 | 23 | 50% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 55 | 37% / 49% | 55 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 40% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 24.5 | 24 | 49% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 54 | 40% / 51% | 92 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 34% / 43% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 22.5 | 21 | 43% / 49% | 54 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 46 | 33% / 51% | 136 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 36% / 46% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 23.5 | 24 | 51% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 53 | 37% / 50% | 75 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 33% / 44% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 24.5 | 26 | 54% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 73.5 | 70 | 47% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 55% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 25.5 | 26 | 50% / 49% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 63 | 44% / 50% | 52 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 45% / 44% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 23.5 | 26 | 58% / 51% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 65 | 45% / 50% | 79 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 46% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 24.5 | 25 | 51% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 61 | 42% / 50% | 104 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 45% / 48% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 24.5 | 24 | 49% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 75.5 | 57 | 35% / 49% | 52 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 41% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 25.5 | 26 | 51% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 80.5 | 74 | 45% / 51% | 25 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 60% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 90.5 | 67 | 32% / 50% | 59 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 38% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 85.5 | 67 | 36% / 49% | 60 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 40% / 46% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 49% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 88.5 | 74 | 39% / 49% | 17 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 33% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 88.5 | 62 | 31% / 52% | 119 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 32% / 55% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 78.5 | 63 | 38% / 51% | 92 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 35% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 75.5 | 57 | 35% / 52% | 54 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 31% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 48% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 78.5 | 84 | 53% / 49% | 78 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 42% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 51% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 83.5 | 87 | 53% / 51% | 151 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 57% / 57% | 12 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 73.5 | 73 | 50% / 51% | 86 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 48% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 59 | 44% / 50% | 135 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 32% / 41% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 58 | 40% / 51% | 117 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 33% / 45% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 46% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 79.5 | 77 | 48% / 50% | 195 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 53% / 55% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 57 | 42% / 52% | 80 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 55% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 44 | 44% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 44% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 57 | 44% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 41% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 75 | 61% / 50% | 191 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 62% / 50% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 56 | 47% / 50% | 104 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 51% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 50 | 42% / 50% | 65 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 47% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 65 | 55% / 50% | 54 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 58% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 77 | 63% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 64% / 46% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 59 | 56% / 51% | 80 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 42% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 64 | 55% / 50% | 39 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 50 | 49% / 50% | 168 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 60% / 55% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 53 | 48% / 50% | 34 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 54 | 55% / 52% | 146 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 71% / 56% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 42.5 | – | – / 50% | 80 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 48% | 6 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 72.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 72.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 69.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 64.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 64.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 27.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 67.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 67.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 26.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 75.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 70.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 70.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 70.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 70.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 70.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 65.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 69.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 69.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 66.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 66.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 66.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 64.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 64.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 66.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 66.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 66.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 73.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 73.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 70.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 70.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 70.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 70.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 70.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 70.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 70.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 70.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 70.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 70.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 75.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Under 80.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 90.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 90.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 90.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 90.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 85.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 85.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 85.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology