TE · NO · 160 lines since 2023
Noah Fant Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Noah Fant, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 12% — we make it 11%
- Line 9.5 yds longest rec — we project 9.0 (P(over) 48%)
- Line 13.5 rec yds — we project 12 (P(over) 47%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 54%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 27, under 20 (47 graded)
- Receptions over 25, under 21 (46 graded)
- Anytime TD over 6, under 43 (49 graded)
- Longest reception over 8, under 6 (14 graded)
Our calls on him: Pre-snap motion 1–1 · Dome team outdoors 1–0 · Starters out on defense 5–6 · model 33–33 · Freezing 1–1 · Short week 1–4 · Missed tackles 1–0 · Middle of the field 1–1 · Wind 15+ mph 1–1 · Man coverage 2–0 · Explosive plays 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 12% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 9.5 | 9.0 | 48% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 12 | 47% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 53% | – | … |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 10 | 47% / 50% | 33 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 15 | 53% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 7.5 | 8.5 | 53% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 10 | 51% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 8.5 | 11 | 59% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 16 | 62% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 8.5 | 10 | 56% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 14 | 58% / 49% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 9.5 | 13 | 64% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 22 | 70% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 74% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 12.5 | 13 | 51% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 21 | 46% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 33% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 11.5 | 13 | 55% / 52% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 20 | 47% / 49% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 12.5 | 13 | 51% / 49% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 20 | 47% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 12.5 | 13 | 51% / 51% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 20 | 41% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 27% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 12.5 | 13 | 51% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 22 | 41% / 51% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 8.5 | 8.7 | 51% / 51% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 13 | 52% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 63% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 13.5 | 12 | 44% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 19 | 46% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 50% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 11.5 | 12 | 53% / 48% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 20 | 56% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 12.5 | 16 | 61% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 27 | 57% / 49% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 9.5 | 19 | 79% / 48% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 38 | 82% / 51% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 4 | 83% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 27 | 47% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 41% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 26 | 43% / 50% | 43 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 36% / 42% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 23 | 48% / 51% | 50 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 55% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 23 | 46% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 50% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 20 | 39% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 54% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 16 | 38% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 48% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 27 | 43% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 22 | 41% / 51% | 65 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 29% / 40% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 18 | 44% / 49% | 63 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 19 | 46% / 49% | 24 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 19 | 37% / 49% | 26 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 17 | 40% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 33% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 19 | 36% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 23% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 23 | 43% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 59% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 17 | 39% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 16 | 46% / 48% | 59 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 31% / 38% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 18 | 47% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 17 | 39% / 52% | 16 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 42% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 14 | 50% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 52% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 12 | 44% / 50% | 43 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 12 | 48% / 48% | 25 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 55% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 14 | 37% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 30% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 18 | 51% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 16 | 45% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 13 | 43% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 16 | 43% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 33% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 17 | 42% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 17 | 42% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 22 | 42% / 48% | 41 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 53% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 6.4 | 25% / 50% | 56 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 62% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 23.5 | – | – / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 50% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W3 Under 11.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 13.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 9.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 10.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 10.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 10.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 11.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 23.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 22.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 22.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 22.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 27.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 17.5 rec yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 31.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 24.5 rec yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over 25.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 23.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Over 31.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Over 28.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 21.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Over 26.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology