RB · MIA · 55 lines since 2023
Ollie Gordon II Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Ollie Gordon II, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 41% — we make it 32%
- Line 7.5 yds longest rec — we project 4.0 (P(over) 29%)
- Line 9.5 rec yds — we project 4.4 (P(over) 32%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 37%)
- Line 11.5 rush attempts — we project 10 (P(over) 34%)
- Line 56.5 rush + rec yds — we project 41 (P(over) 31%)
- Line 42.5 rush yds — we project 34 (P(over) 38%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 4, under 12 (16 graded)
- Receiving yards over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
- Receptions over 1, under 0 (1 graded)
- Anytime TD over 6, under 15 (21 graded)
- Rush attempts over 1, under 7 (8 graded)
- Longest reception over 1, under 0 (1 graded)
Our calls on him: model 16–7 · Missed tackles 2–3 · Starters out on defense 1–4 · Big underdog (6.5+) 1–0 · Short week 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 41% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 7.5 | 4.0 | 29% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 4.4 | 32% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 55% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 11.5 | 10 | 34% / 46% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush+rec yds | 56.5 | 41 | 31% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 42.5 | 34 | 38% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 0 | 15% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 12% / 38% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 9.1 | 14% / 50% | 100 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 6.3 | 38% / 49% | 41 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 1.5 | 0 | 27% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 15 | 40% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 11 | 48% / 51% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 7.5 | 11 | 62% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 14 | 48% / 50% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 37% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 15 | 42% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 11 | 31% / 49% | -3 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 6.5 | 4 | 19% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 12 | 30% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 14% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 8.2 | 33% / 49% | 46 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 48% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 9.3 | 30% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 53% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 11 | 37% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 6.5 | 5 | 24% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 15 | 29% / 51% | -2 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 7.5 | 4 | 16% / 46% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 18 | 34% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 15% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 4.5 | 3 | 20% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 8.9 | 30% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 24.5 | – | – / 50% | 4 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 24.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 24.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 9.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 1.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 19.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 19.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 11.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 11.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 7.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 7.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 14.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 18.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 6.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 20.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 20.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 13.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 13.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 16.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 24.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 7.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 25.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 25.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology