TE · LAC · 68 lines since 2023
Oronde Gadsden II Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Oronde Gadsden II, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 25% — we make it 27%
- Line 34.5 rec yds — we project 33 (P(over) 48%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 49%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 8, under 8 (16 graded)
- Receptions over 8, under 8 (16 graded)
- Anytime TD over 4, under 15 (19 graded)
- Longest reception over 9, under 4 (13 graded)
Our calls on him: Dome team outdoors 3–4 · model 12–12 · Pre-snap motion 0–2 · Missed tackles 0–1 · Middle of the field 0–1 · Starters out on defense 2–0 · Short week 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 25% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 33 | 48% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 22 | 43% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 50% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 25 | 33% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 22 | 65% / 49% | 18 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 63% / 48% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 52% / 49% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 27 | 45% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 54% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 19.5 | 21 | 54% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 41 | 52% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 16.5 | 15 | 46% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 27 | 37% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 16.5 | 18 | 54% / 52% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 34 | 49% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 19.5 | 20 | 52% / 51% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 40 | 41% / 51% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3.5 | 50% / 60% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 19.5 | 20 | 52% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 43 | 43% / 51% | 41 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 19.5 | 22 | 56% / 52% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 47 | 45% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 19.5 | 20 | 53% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 42 | 45% / 51% | 68 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 33% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 17.5 | 18 | 52% / 52% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 34 | 39% / 51% | 77 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 60% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 13.5 | 15 | 57% / 52% | 53 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 28 | 51% / 52% | 164 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 59% / 60% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 13.5 | 12 | 46% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 18 | 41% / 50% | 68 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 49% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 11.5 | 13 | 56% / 51% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 20 | 54% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 13.5 | 15 | 55% / 48% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 25 | 55% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | – | – / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 6% | – | void |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 27.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 37.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 30.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 39.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 36.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 36.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 48.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 50.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 50.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 52.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 46.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 46.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 43.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 23.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 23.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 22.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology