WR · JAX · 131 lines since 2023
Parker Washington Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Parker Washington, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 41% — we make it 33%
- Line 23.5 yds longest rec — we project 26 (P(over) 57%)
- Line 60.5 rec yds — we project 57 (P(over) 46%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 43%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 16, under 15 (31 graded)
- Receptions over 16, under 15 (31 graded)
- Anytime TD over 14, under 32 (46 graded)
- Longest reception over 10, under 4 (14 graded)
Our calls on him: Pre-snap motion 2–4 · Explosive plays 0–1 · Missed tackles 1–1 · model 37–20 · Starters out on defense 4–2 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0 · Middle of the field 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 41% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 23.5 | 26 | 57% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 57 | 46% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 52% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 75.5 | 69 | 44% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 68 | 50% / 50% | 40 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 49 | 39% / 50% | 98 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 51% | 7 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 63 | 57% / 50% | 83 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 43% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 21.5 | 26 | 61% / 49% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 50 | 53% / 50% | 87 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 52% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 20.5 | 24 | 58% / 51% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 44 | 52% / 50% | 115 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 45% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 53% / 51% | 63 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 30 | 49% / 51% | 145 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 53% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 15.5 | 17 | 54% / 51% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 26 | 48% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 23% | – | void |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 49% / 51% | – | void |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 17.5 | 20 | 55% / 48% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 35 | 49% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 18.5 | 21 | 57% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 41 | 47% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 19.5 | 19 | 48% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 35 | 36% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 28% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 19.5 | 18 | 47% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 37 | 43% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 33% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 18.5 | 22 | 59% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 39 | 48% / 50% | 90 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 52% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 12.5 | 16 | 61% / 49% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 26 | 65% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 70% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 11.5 | 17 | 67% / 49% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 28 | 72% / 51% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 71% / 52% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 11.5 | 18 | 70% / 49% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 31 | 73% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 76% / 55% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 18.5 | 18 | 50% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 33 | 46% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 8.5 | 22 | 86% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 41 | 86% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 83% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 24 | 37% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 60% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 20 | 31% / 49% | 31 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 22% / 41% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 21 | 40% / 51% | 54 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 19 | 35% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 54% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 16 | 28% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 30% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 8.2 | 24% / 52% | 103 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 12% / 42% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 7.1 | 35% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 12 | 36% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 22% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 9.5 | 20% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 19% / 52% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 14 | 36% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 29% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 16 | 22% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 15% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 9.2 | 28% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 17% / 41% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 4.4 | 14% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 10% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | – | – / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | – | – / 11% | – | void |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 7% | – | void |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 5% | – | void |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Under 60.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Over 75.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 75.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 75.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 60.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 60.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 60.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 53.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 47.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 31.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 27.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 35.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 35.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 47.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 16.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 13.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 32.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Over 29.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 29.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology