WR · DEN · 53 lines since 2023
Pat Bryant Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Pat Bryant, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 22% — we make it 14%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 11, under 2 (13 graded)
- Receptions over 8, under 3 (11 graded)
- Anytime TD over 2, under 17 (19 graded)
- Longest reception over 5, under 4 (9 graded)
Our calls on him: model 4–20 · Pre-snap motion 1–0 · Short week 0–1 · Starters out on defense 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 22% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 21 | 47% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 44% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 19 | 40% / 51% | 44 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 53% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 29 | 45% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 31% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 22 | 45% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 49% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 22 | 41% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 18.5 | 16 | 43% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 22 | 33% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 59% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 16.5 | 15 | 46% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 20 | 37% / 51% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 29% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 14.5 | 12 | 44% / 51% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 15 | 39% / 51% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.9 | 48% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 10 | 50% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 12.5 | 9.7 | 44% / 51% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 11 | 36% / 50% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 61% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 10.5 | 5.8 | 39% / 51% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 6.6 | 31% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 58% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 8.5 | 1.7 | 37% / 48% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 1.7 | 36% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 19% / 40% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 7.5 | – | – / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 7.5 | – | – / 51% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 22.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 20.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 9.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology