TE · PIT · 171 lines since 2023
Pat Freiermuth Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Pat Freiermuth, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 25% — we make it 19%
- Line 12.5 yds longest rec — we project 16 (P(over) 61%)
- Line 27.5 rec yds — we project 27 (P(over) 48%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 37%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 24, under 26 (50 graded)
- Receptions over 25, under 25 (50 graded)
- Anytime TD over 14, under 36 (50 graded)
- Longest reception over 8, under 9 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: model 43–35 · Short week 2–3 · Freezing 0–4 · Pre-snap motion 1–1 · Starters out on defense 3–5 · Wind 15+ mph 4–0 · Missed tackles 2–2 · Middle of the field 1–5
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 25% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 12.5 | 16 | 61% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 27 | 48% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 44% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 21 | 39% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 30% / 41% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 25 | 31% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 16 | 27% / 51% | 32 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 24% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 26 | 48% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 15.5 | 11 | 34% / 49% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 17 | 26% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 24% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 13.5 | 10 | 37% / 51% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 15 | 34% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 12.5 | 12 | 49% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 19 | 48% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 39% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 10.5 | 11 | 51% / 51% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 16 | 46% / 51% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 11.5 | 9.8 | 42% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 14 | 42% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 58% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 12.5 | 10 | 42% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 15 | 42% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 12.5 | 13 | 50% / 48% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 19 | 53% / 51% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 65% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 54% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 24 | 48% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 13.5 | 13 | 47% / 49% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 21 | 48% / 50% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 12.5 | 15 | 58% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 26 | 59% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 53% / 41% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 11.5 | 15 | 61% / 52% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 26 | 59% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 10.5 | 13 | 58% / 51% | 68 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 20 | 59% / 50% | 111 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 64% / 52% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 11.5 | 15 | 62% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 26 | 67% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 80% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 14.5 | 15 | 52% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 28 | 58% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 66% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 13.5 | 16 | 59% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 32 | 60% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 65% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 13.5 | 16 | 58% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 31 | 60% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 67% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 13.5 | 17 | 64% / 52% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 38 | 64% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 77% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 29 | 42% / 50% | 85 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 53% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 31 | 50% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 41% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 32 | 43% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 29 | 46% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 28 | 41% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 22 | 44% / 51% | 68 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 50% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 18 | 50% / 52% | 59 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 68% / 65% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 28 | 50% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 62% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 23 | 51% / 51% | 17 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 53% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 26 | 48% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 24 | 41% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 30 | 49% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 34 | 53% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 32 | 53% / 50% | 57 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 43% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 28 | 55% / 51% | 33 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 66% / 55% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 23 | 49% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 22 | 42% / 51% | 27 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 50% / 53% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 22 | 48% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 53% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 20 | 46% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 54% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 25 | 45% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 59% / 62% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 27 | 42% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 23 | 40% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 61% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 27 | 38% / 49% | 29 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 12 | 28% / 48% | 120 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 30% / 46% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 8.1 | 21% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 21% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 17 | 26% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 21% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 10 | 15% / 51% | 41 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 1 | 11% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 15 | 17% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 19% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 36.5 | – | – / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 53% | 1 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 27.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 31.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 23.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 17.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 19.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 19.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 17.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 26.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 26.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 14.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 14.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 35.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 30.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 30.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology