TE · TB · 63 lines since 2023
Payne Durham Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Payne Durham, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 3% — we make it 4%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 2, under 2 (4 graded)
- Receptions over 1, under 3 (4 graded)
- Anytime TD over 2, under 48 (50 graded)
- Longest reception over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
Our calls on him: model 6–4 · Short week 1–0 · Starters out on defense 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 3% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 3% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 9.5 | 0.3 | 28% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 0.3 | 26% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 19% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 9.7 | 30% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 16% / 39% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 15 | 34% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 28% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 0 | 19% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 16% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | – | – / 6% | – | void |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | – | – / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 5% | – | void |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 6% | – | void |
Our calls
- 2025 W15 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 12.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 25.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology