WR · LAR · 172 lines since 2023
Puka Nacua Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Puka Nacua, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 57% — we make it 37%
- Line 27.5 yds longest rec — we project 32 (P(over) 61%)
- Line 93.5 rec yds — we project 91 (P(over) 48%)
- Line 7.5 receptions — we project 6 (P(over) 38%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 1, under 13 (14 graded)
- Receiving yards over 28, under 17 (45 graded)
- Receptions over 23, under 22 (45 graded)
- Anytime TD over 19, under 27 (46 graded)
- Rush attempts over 1, under 1 (2 graded)
- Longest reception over 8, under 8 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: Missed tackles 7–8 · Pre-snap motion 8–12 · Dome team outdoors 6–10 · model 54–35 · Starters out on defense 4–4 · Explosive plays 4–5 · Middle of the field 8–5 · Short week 1–4 · Wind 15+ mph 1–1 · Red-zone defense 0–1 · Freezing 1–0 · Play action 1–1 · Contested catches 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 57% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 27.5 | 32 | 61% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 93.5 | 91 | 48% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 7.5 | 6 | 38% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 73.5 | 71 | 48% / 50% | 125 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 42% / 50% | 9 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 90.5 | 121 | 68% / 50% | 74 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 7.5 | 9 | 65% / 44% | 5 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 0 | 38% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 50% TD chance | 50% / 61% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 26.5 | 41 | 80% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 94.5 | 139 | 73% / 50% | 76 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 7.5 | 9 | 60% / 48% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 62% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 29.5 | 39 | 72% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 109.5 | 142 | 66% / 53% | 47 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 8.5 | 9 | 57% / 45% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 35% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 26.5 | 31 | 62% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 91.5 | 110 | 61% / 51% | 225 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 7.5 | 9 | 67% / 53% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 34% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 28.5 | 35 | 68% / 51% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 100.5 | 120 | 60% / 51% | 181 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 7.5 | 8 | 57% / 54% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 53% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 26.5 | 30 | 59% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 92.5 | 93 | 50% / 48% | 167 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 7.5 | 7 | 46% / 53% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 35% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 25.5 | 29 | 60% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 91.5 | 88 | 47% / 50% | 72 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 7.5 | 7 | 44% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 0 | 34% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 25.5 | 29 | 61% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 87.5 | 88 | 51% / 50% | 97 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 7.5 | 7 | 45% / 47% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 0 | 35% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 25.5 | 29 | 61% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 89.5 | 95 | 54% / 50% | 75 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 7.5 | 8 | 54% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 59% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 27.5 | 29 | 55% / 51% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 92.5 | 90 | 48% / 50% | 64 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 7.5 | 7 | 47% / 54% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 34% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 56% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 27.5 | 28 | 52% / 51% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 91.5 | 84 | 44% / 50% | 95 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 7.5 | 6 | 38% / 56% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 25.5 | 29 | 63% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 94.5 | 102 | 55% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 8.5 | 9 | 51% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 39% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 26.5 | 30 | 62% / 49% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 95.5 | 102 | 54% / 50% | 85 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 7.5 | 8 | 57% / 58% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 0.5 | 1 | 51% / 60% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 0 | 32% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 25.5 | 31 | 67% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 90.5 | 107 | 60% / 50% | 170 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 7.5 | 9 | 61% / 52% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 2.5 | 0 | 41% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 25.5 | 25 | 49% / 49% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 83.5 | 74 | 43% / 49% | 112 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 55% / 55% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 0.5 | 1 | 52% / 61% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 0 | 33% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 24.5 | 27 | 58% / 52% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 84.5 | 81 | 47% / 50% | 91 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 54% / 56% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 24.5 | 28 | 62% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 72.5 | 90 | 63% / 51% | 130 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 60% / 45% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 87.5 | 65 | 34% / 51% | 129 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 7.5 | 5 | 22% / 46% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 2.5 | 1.0 | 44% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 86.5 | 69 | 37% / 51% | 56 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 36% / 56% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 89.5 | 69 | 35% / 50% | 97 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 7.5 | 5 | 27% / 44% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 79.5 | 56 | 32% / 50% | 162 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 25% / 52% | 12 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 81.5 | 65 | 37% / 50% | 56 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 29% / 48% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 52 | 32% / 50% | 117 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 6.5 | 4 | 19% / 45% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 42 | 28% / 50% | 123 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 3 | 22% / 55% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 41 | 25% / 51% | 98 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 3 | 15% / 55% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 0 | 38% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 41 | 27% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 3 | 17% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 45% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 49 | 72% / 50% | 106 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 75% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 81 | 57% / 51% | 35 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 41% / 44% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 67 | 49% / 51% | 118 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 39% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 64 | 51% / 51% | 164 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 42% / 45% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 83 | 59% / 51% | 50 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 50% / 45% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 63 | 57% / 50% | 84 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 65% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 55 | 51% / 50% | 105 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 52% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 70 | 55% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 48% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 74 | 56% / 51% | 70 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 54% / 48% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 55 | 54% / 49% | 32 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 61% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 74.5 | 63 | 40% / 51% | 43 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 41% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 67 | 55% / 51% | 154 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 66% / 60% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 76 | 56% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 41% / 46% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 84 | 64% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 5.5 | 7 | 66% / 47% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 72.5 | 87 | 60% / 50% | 163 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 6.5 | 8 | 63% / 50% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 73 | 52% / 51% | 72 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 55% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 62 | 68% / 51% | 147 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 71% / 45% | 15 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 25.5 | – | – / 50% | 119 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 49% | 10 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Over 92.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Over 92.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Under 73.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 73.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 73.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 90.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 7.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 1.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 26.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 94.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 94.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 94.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 7.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 29.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 109.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 109.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 109.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 8.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 26.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 26.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 91.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 91.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 91.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 91.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 91.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 91.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 91.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 7.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 28.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 100.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 100.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 100.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 100.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 26.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 7.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 91.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 91.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 87.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 87.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 87.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 1.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 89.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 89.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 92.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 7.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 91.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 91.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 7.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology