WR · LAC · 161 lines since 2023
Quentin Johnston Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Quentin Johnston, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 24, under 22 (46 graded)
- Receptions over 19, under 27 (46 graded)
- Anytime TD over 16, under 34 (50 graded)
- Longest reception over 8, under 6 (14 graded)
Our calls on him: Dome team outdoors 5–11 · Explosive plays 0–1 · model 40–31 · Pre-snap motion 4–3 · Starters out on defense 2–3 · Missed tackles 1–1 · Short week 3–0 · Middle of the field 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | – | – / 28% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 36 | 51% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 43 | 56% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 40% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 42 | 45% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 55 | 61% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 20% | – | void |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 19.5 | 19 | 49% / 49% | 60 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 34 | 49% / 49% | 98 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 16.5 | 18 | 55% / 51% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 32 | 55% / 50% | 104 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 23% | – | void |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 46% / 49% | – | void |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 17.5 | 19 | 57% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 39 | 56% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 18.5 | 22 | 60% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 42 | 53% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 18.5 | 22 | 59% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 44 | 54% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 19.5 | 24 | 62% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 50 | 56% / 51% | 42 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 18.5 | 25 | 64% / 50% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 47 | 59% / 51% | 53 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 64% / 61% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 21.5 | 24 | 56% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 49 | 48% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 22.5 | 27 | 59% / 50% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 59 | 51% / 51% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 23.5 | 27 | 61% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 64 | 50% / 52% | 40 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 57% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 21.5 | 25 | 61% / 49% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 54 | 52% / 50% | 98 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 43% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 21.5 | 24 | 57% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 51 | 56% / 48% | 89 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 52% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 19.5 | 22 | 58% / 48% | 60 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 44 | 50% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 14.5 | 22 | 73% / 49% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 48 | 74% / 50% | 79 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 75% / 46% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 46 | 59% / 51% | 186 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 48% | 13 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 39 | 56% / 49% | 48 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 39% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 42 | 53% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 59 | 68% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 43% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 33 | 38% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 36% / 50% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 38 | 53% / 48% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 59% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 50 | 50% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 35 | 39% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 35% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 31 | 41% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 29% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 27 | 41% / 50% | 118 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 59% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 25% | – | void |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 30 | 51% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 27 | 37% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 26 | 32% / 49% | 44 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 36% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 23 | 38% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 59% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 35 | 62% / 49% | 38 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 43% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 39 | 52% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 22 | 41% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 31 | 49% / 51% | 23 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 63% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 21 | 41% / 50% | 91 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 19 | 51% / 48% | 52 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 33% / 38% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 20 | 43% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 21 | 29% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 22% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 17 | 29% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 28% / 55% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 20 | 33% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 19% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 15 | 31% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 21% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 11 | 35% / 53% | 20 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 12 | 21% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 20% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 10 | 24% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 16% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 21% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 34.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 34.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 37.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 34.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 29.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 29.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 39.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 40.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 40.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 44.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 37.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 37.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 50.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 57.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 57.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 51.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 51.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 37.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 34.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 39.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 44.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 35.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology