WR · BAL · 163 lines since 2023
Rashod Bateman Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Rashod Bateman, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 18% — we make it 26%
- Line 12.5 yds longest rec — we project 19 (P(over) 71%)
- Line 17.5 rec yds — we project 35 (P(over) 74%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 81%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 22, under 26 (48 graded)
- Receptions over 19, under 25 (44 graded)
- Anytime TD over 12, under 38 (50 graded)
- Longest reception over 4, under 9 (13 graded)
Our calls on him: model 24–54 · Pre-snap motion 2–2 · Freezing 0–1 · Middle of the field 5–2 · Missed tackles 0–1 · Short week 4–1 · Starters out on defense 4–0 · Wind 15+ mph 2–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 18% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 12.5 | 19 | 71% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 35 | 74% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 81% / 56% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 39 | 63% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 51 | 60% / 50% | 37 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 31 | 40% / 50% | 88 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 57% | 7 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 40 | 66% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 78% / 62% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 17 | 53% / 50% | – | void |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 45% | – | void |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 11.5 | 12 | 50% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 15 | 51% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 53% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 22 | 53% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 22% | – | void |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 13.5 | 16 | 56% / 49% | – | void |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 52% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 24 | 56% / 51% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 58% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 14.5 | 21 | 64% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 32 | 58% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 17.5 | 20 | 58% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 32 | 53% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 17.5 | 21 | 59% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 34 | 54% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 11.5 | 18 | 66% / 51% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 28 | 64% / 51% | 51 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 67% / 54% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 14.5 | 19 | 62% / 49% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 33 | 59% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 14.5 | 17 | 59% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 31 | 58% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 18.5 | 22 | 60% / 49% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 41 | 56% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 62% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 19.5 | 23 | 57% / 49% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 39 | 52% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 18.5 | 24 | 62% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 43 | 57% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 19.5 | 26 | 66% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 54 | 62% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 70% / 58% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 37 | 58% / 50% | 76 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 55 | 68% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 70% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 39 | 55% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 39 | 57% / 50% | 80 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 52% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 46 | 59% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 63% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 42 | 53% / 51% | 43 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 41 | 58% / 49% | 30 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 62% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 40 | 60% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 47% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 40 | 61% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 53% / 44% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 47 | 62% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 66% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 45 | 60% / 50% | 121 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 62% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 41 | 60% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 48% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 30 | 51% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 34 | 59% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 32 | 57% / 51% | 28 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 33 | 58% / 51% | 40 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 42% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 41 | 62% / 49% | 53 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 64% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 38 | 66% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 36 | 61% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 63% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 30 | 59% / 49% | 39 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 74% / 62% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 30 | 64% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 42 | 66% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 65% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 29 | 52% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 20 | 52% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 59% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 22 | 52% / 51% | 28 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 64% / 61% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 17 | 43% / 49% | 34 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 61% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 13 | 50% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 45% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 23 | 64% / 49% | 8 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 35 | 50% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 66% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 29 | 67% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 35.5 | – | – / 50% | 35 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 26.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 15.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) void
- 2025 W17 Under 14.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) void
- 2025 W14 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 19.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 24.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 24.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 30.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 30.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 17.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 26.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 26.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 29.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 29.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 29.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 34.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 34.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 34.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology