RB · NE · 214 lines since 2023

Rhamondre Stevenson Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Rhamondre Stevenson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 47% — we make it 51%
Line 15.5 rec yds — we project 20 (P(over) 59%)
Line 2.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 52%)
Line 10.5 rush attempts — we project 9 (P(over) 42%)
Line 57.5 rush + rec yds — we project 67 (P(over) 60%)
Line 37.5 rush yds — we project 43 (P(over) 58%)

Over/under record by market

Rushing yards over 21, under 24 (45 graded)
Receiving yards over 22, under 23 (45 graded)
Receptions over 21, under 24 (45 graded)
Anytime TD over 16, under 29 (45 graded)
Rush attempts over 5, under 8 (13 graded)
Longest reception over 8, under 5 (13 graded)

Our calls on him: Missed tackles 11–15 · model 80–45 · Pre-snap motion 6–7 · Big favourite (6.5+) 2–3 · Starters out on defense 5–3 · Red-zone defense 0–1 · Big underdog (6.5+) 1–0 · Stacked boxes 1–2 · Light boxes 0–1 · Short week 1–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

Rhamondre Stevenson prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	51% TD chance	51% / 47%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec yds	15.5	20	59% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec	2.5	3	52% / 52%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush att	10.5	9	42% / 51%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush+rec yds	57.5	67	60% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush yds	37.5	43	58% / 50%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	39% TD chance	39% / 40%	1	over
2026 W4	Rec yds	16.5	16	48% / 51%	27	over
2026 W4	Rec	2.5	2	48% / 48%	3	over
2026 W4	Rush yds	32.5	38	58% / 50%	47	over
2026 W3	Any TD	–	42% TD chance	42% / 42%	0	under
2026 W3	Rec yds	14.5	16	54% / 50%	16	over
2026 W3	Rec	2.5	2	45% / 47%	3	over
2026 W3	Rush yds	34.5	37	54% / 50%	22	under
2026 W2	Any TD	–	50% TD chance	50% / 50%	0	under
2026 W2	Rec yds	18.5	17	45% / 51%	3	under
2026 W2	Rec	2.5	2	46% / 57%	1	under
2026 W2	Rush yds	48.5	53	56% / 50%	43	under
2026 W1	Any TD	–	61% TD chance	61% / 49%	0	under
2026 W1	Rec yds	24.5	22	45% / 51%	44	over
2026 W1	Rec	3.5	3	43% / 45%	5	over
2026 W1	Rush yds	57.5	73	64% / 50%	51	under
2025 W18	Any TD	–	53% TD chance	53% / 42%	1	over
2025 W18	Long rec	8.5	12	62% / 52%	15	over
2025 W18	Rec yds	13.5	18	59% / 50%	22	over
2025 W18	Rec	2.5	2	44% / 39%	2	under
2025 W18	Rush att	10.5	10	47% / 45%	7	under
2025 W18	Rush yds	32.5	46	68% / 50%	131	over
2025 W17	Any TD	–	56% TD chance	56% / 45%	1	over
2025 W17	Long rec	9.5	11	57% / 51%	22	over
2025 W17	Rec yds	12.5	17	61% / 50%	55	over
2025 W17	Rec	1.5	2	67% / 55%	5	over
2025 W17	Rush att	11.5	11	45% / 51%	8	under
2025 W17	Rush yds	39.5	48	61% / 50%	47	over
2025 W16	Any TD	–	49% TD chance	49% / 31%	1	over
2025 W16	Long rec	9.5	8.4	45% / 49%	23	over
2025 W16	Rec yds	14.5	12	44% / 51%	27	over
2025 W16	Rec	2.5	2	35% / 43%	2	under
2025 W16	Rush att	8.5	9	55% / 44%	8	under
2025 W16	Rush yds	29.5	34	56% / 50%	51	over
2025 W15	Any TD	–	43% TD chance	43% / 35%	0	under
2025 W15	Long rec	7.5	8.1	53% / 52%	16	over
2025 W15	Rec yds	10.5	11	51% / 50%	27	over
2025 W15	Rec	1.5	2	55% / 54%	3	over
2025 W15	Rush att	10.5	10	45% / 49%	6	under
2025 W15	Rush yds	37.5	35	45% / 51%	50	over
2025 W13	Any TD	–	45% TD chance	45% / 33%	0	under
2025 W13	Long rec	6.5	8.1	58% / 51%	36	over
2025 W13	Rec yds	7.5	11	59% / 51%	40	over
2025 W13	Rec	1.5	2	51% / 42%	3	over
2025 W13	Rush att	7.5	9	67% / 44%	12	over
2025 W13	Rush yds	27.5	35	61% / 50%	40	over
2025 W12	Any TD	–	53% TD chance	53% / 53%	0	under
2025 W12	Rec yds	9.5	11	53% / 48%	5	under
2025 W12	Rec	1.5	2	50% / 46%	1	under
2025 W12	Rush yds	37.5	40	54% / 49%	5	under
2025 W8	Any TD	–	47% TD chance	47% / 48%	0	under
2025 W8	Long rec	7.5	7.3	49% / 50%	15	over
2025 W8	Rec yds	10.5	9.6	47% / 49%	15	over
2025 W8	Rec	1.5	2	51% / 62%	1	under
2025 W8	Rush att	14.5	11	23% / 46%	14	under
2025 W8	Rush yds	46.5	39	41% / 50%	34	under
2025 W7	Any TD	–	45% TD chance	45% / 47%	1	over
2025 W7	Long rec	9.5	7.9	43% / 51%	2	under
2025 W7	Rec yds	11.5	11	49% / 51%	0	under
2025 W7	Rec	2.5	2	29% / 39%	2	under
2025 W7	Rush att	12.5	12	47% / 49%	18	over
2025 W7	Rush yds	44.5	43	47% / 50%	88	over
2025 W6	Any TD	–	53% TD chance	53% / 45%	0	under
2025 W6	Long rec	9.5	9.3	49% / 49%	0	under
2025 W6	Rec yds	14.5	14	49% / 51%	0	under
2025 W6	Rec	2.5	2	38% / 46%	0	under
2025 W6	Rush att	11.5	13	59% / 51%	13	over
2025 W6	Rush yds	45.5	52	57% / 49%	18	under
2025 W5	Any TD	–	40% TD chance	40% / 31%	1	over
2025 W5	Long rec	9.5	8.2	44% / 49%	7	under
2025 W5	Rec yds	13.5	12	46% / 50%	13	under
2025 W5	Rec	2.5	2	34% / 44%	2	under
2025 W5	Rush att	8.5	9	58% / 48%	7	under
2025 W5	Rush yds	32.5	35	54% / 50%	14	under
2025 W4	Any TD	–	44% TD chance	44% / 38%	0	under
2025 W4	Long rec	8.5	9.8	56% / 53%	3	under
2025 W4	Rec yds	12.5	15	55% / 51%	3	under
2025 W4	Rec	2.5	2	39% / 42%	1	under
2025 W4	Rush att	8.5	11	67% / 53%	9	over
2025 W4	Rush yds	32.5	44	64% / 51%	38	over
2025 W3	Any TD	–	42% TD chance	42% / 37%	0	under
2025 W3	Long rec	8.5	8.8	52% / 51%	23	over
2025 W3	Rec yds	12.5	13	52% / 50%	38	over
2025 W3	Rec	2.5	2	39% / 40%	3	over
2025 W3	Rush att	11.5	11	47% / 47%	4	under
2025 W3	Rush yds	40.5	43	54% / 52%	18	under
2025 W2	Any TD	–	40% TD chance	40% / 37%	0	under
2025 W2	Long rec	6.5	5.6	45% / 48%	55	over
2025 W2	Rec yds	7.5	7.1	48% / 52%	88	over
2025 W2	Rec	1.5	1	45% / 51%	5	over
2025 W2	Rush att	8.5	10	65% / 54%	11	over
2025 W2	Rush yds	36.5	36	49% / 49%	54	over
2025 W1	Any TD	–	61% TD chance	61% / 41%	0	under
2025 W1	Long rec	7.5	9.4	60% / 49%	7	under
2025 W1	Rec yds	8.5	15	66% / 50%	12	over
2025 W1	Rec	1.5	2	66% / 52%	2	over
2025 W1	Rush att	10.5	16	82% / 53%	7	under
2025 W1	Rush yds	42.5	64	72% / 49%	15	under
2024 W18	Any TD	–	40% TD chance	40% / 33%	–	void
2024 W18	Rec yds	8.5	9.0	51% / 51%	–	void
2024 W17	Any TD	–	43% TD chance	43% / 41%	0	under
2024 W17	Rec yds	11.5	9.7	44% / 50%	0	under
2024 W17	Rec	2.5	2	36% / 40%	0	under
2024 W17	Rush yds	44.5	48	54% / 50%	1	under
2024 W16	Any TD	–	40% TD chance	40% / 40%	1	over
2024 W16	Rec yds	13.5	11	40% / 49%	13	under
2024 W16	Rec	2.5	2	41% / 48%	1	under
2024 W16	Rush yds	45.5	43	46% / 48%	60	over
2024 W15	Any TD	–	51% TD chance	51% / 48%	0	under
2024 W15	Rec yds	14.5	11	39% / 50%	16	over
2024 W15	Rec	2.5	2	39% / 53%	1	under
2024 W15	Rush yds	49.5	46	46% / 50%	69	over
2024 W13	Any TD	–	46% TD chance	46% / 50%	0	under
2024 W13	Rec yds	11.5	10	46% / 50%	21	over
2024 W13	Rec	2.5	2	38% / 48%	3	over
2024 W13	Rush yds	51.5	48	45% / 51%	73	over
2024 W12	Any TD	–	49% TD chance	49% / 43%	0	under
2024 W12	Rec yds	15.5	11	38% / 49%	0	under
2024 W12	Rec	2.5	2	45% / 55%	0	under
2024 W12	Rush yds	56.5	45	35% / 49%	13	under
2024 W11	Any TD	–	46% TD chance	46% / 48%	0	under
2024 W11	Rec yds	15.5	11	37% / 50%	16	over
2024 W11	Rec	2.5	2	42% / 48%	4	over
2024 W11	Rush yds	57.5	47	37% / 50%	73	over
2024 W10	Any TD	–	40% TD chance	40% / 38%	0	under
2024 W10	Rec yds	16.5	9.2	27% / 49%	3	under
2024 W10	Rec	2.5	2	39% / 56%	1	under
2024 W10	Rush yds	56.5	38	25% / 51%	74	over
2024 W9	Any TD	–	45% TD chance	45% / 42%	1	over
2024 W9	Rec yds	14.5	9.2	34% / 50%	38	over
2024 W9	Rec	2.5	2	37% / 51%	5	over
2024 W9	Rush yds	54.5	49	43% / 50%	16	under
2024 W8	Any TD	–	42% TD chance	42% / 36%	1	over
2024 W8	Rec yds	13.5	9.8	39% / 50%	17	over
2024 W8	Rec	2.5	2	38% / 46%	3	over
2024 W8	Rush yds	48.5	48	49% / 50%	48	under
2024 W7	Any TD	–	40% TD chance	40% / 40%	0	under
2024 W7	Rec yds	15.5	10	33% / 49%	7	under
2024 W7	Rec	2.5	2	38% / 49%	2	under
2024 W7	Rush yds	46.5	44	47% / 51%	18	under
2024 W5	Any TD	–	43% TD chance	43% / 38%	1	over
2024 W5	Rec yds	9.5	10	52% / 50%	3	under
2024 W5	Rec	1.5	2	62% / 55%	4	over
2024 W5	Rush yds	43.5	54	63% / 50%	89	over
2024 W4	Any TD	–	38% TD chance	38% / 42%	0	under
2024 W4	Rec yds	13.5	7.9	33% / 49%	19	over
2024 W4	Rec	2.5	2	31% / 50%	4	over
2024 W4	Rush yds	55.5	44	36% / 50%	43	under
2024 W3	Any TD	–	41% TD chance	41% / 48%	0	under
2024 W3	Rec yds	15.5	10	33% / 50%	0	under
2024 W3	Rec	2.5	2	38% / 56%	0	under
2024 W3	Rush yds	65.5	54	37% / 52%	23	under
2024 W2	Any TD	–	39% TD chance	39% / 50%	1	over
2024 W2	Rec yds	15.5	10	36% / 50%	9	under
2024 W2	Rec	2.5	2	39% / 55%	2	under
2024 W2	Rush yds	60.5	55	44% / 50%	81	over
2024 W1	Any TD	–	43% TD chance	43% / 34%	1	over
2024 W1	Rec yds	14.5	12	42% / 51%	6	under
2024 W1	Rec	2.5	2	43% / 51%	3	over
2024 W1	Rush yds	51.5	49	47% / 50%	120	over
2023 W13	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 45%	0	under
2023 W13	Rec yds	22.5	16	34% / 49%	0	under
2023 W13	Rec	3.5	3	39% / 47%	1	under
2023 W13	Rush yds	62.5	58	45% / 49%	39	under
2023 W12	Any TD	–	40% TD chance	40% / 46%	1	over
2023 W12	Rec yds	20.5	16	41% / 50%	9	under
2023 W12	Rec	2.5	3	50% / 60%	5	over
2023 W12	Rush yds	59.5	57	47% / 51%	98	over
2023 W10	Any TD	–	40% TD chance	40% / 47%	0	under
2023 W10	Rec yds	20.5	16	42% / 50%	14	under
2023 W10	Rec	3.5	2	32% / 46%	3	under
2023 W10	Rush yds	49.5	55	56% / 50%	88	over
2023 W9	Any TD	–	42% TD chance	42% / 44%	1	over
2023 W9	Rec yds	20.5	16	39% / 51%	42	over
2023 W9	Rec	3.5	2	27% / 44%	4	over
2023 W9	Rush yds	46.5	46	49% / 50%	87	over
2023 W8	Any TD	–	35% TD chance	35% / 38%	0	under
2023 W8	Rec yds	18.5	15	41% / 50%	11	under
2023 W8	Rec	3.5	2	29% / 40%	2	under
2023 W8	Rush yds	39.5	42	54% / 50%	39	under
2023 W7	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 33%	0	under
2023 W7	Rec yds	13.5	11	42% / 51%	51	over
2023 W7	Rec	2.5	2	41% / 53%	6	over
2023 W7	Rush yds	45.5	37	37% / 50%	34	under
2023 W6	Any TD	–	34% TD chance	34% / 42%	1	over
2023 W6	Rec yds	14.5	8.9	36% / 50%	24	over
2023 W6	Rec	2.5	2	29% / 53%	5	over
2023 W6	Rush yds	50.5	45	42% / 51%	46	under
2023 W5	Any TD	–	48% TD chance	48% / 43%	0	under
2023 W5	Rec yds	15.5	9.4	34% / 49%	0	under
2023 W5	Rec	2.5	2	32% / 56%	0	under
2023 W5	Rush yds	52.5	41	35% / 48%	24	under
2023 W4	Any TD	–	44% TD chance	44% / 38%	0	under
2023 W4	Rec yds	14.5	11	40% / 50%	10	under
2023 W4	Rec	2.5	2	40% / 55%	2	under
2023 W4	Rush yds	45.5	39	41% / 49%	30	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	46% TD chance	46% / 44%	0	under
2023 W3	Rec yds	21.5	10	23% / 50%	3	under
2023 W3	Rec	3.5	2	23% / 47%	1	under
2023 W3	Rush yds	57.5	45	33% / 50%	59	over
2023 W2	Any TD	–	40% TD chance	40% / 48%	1	over
2023 W2	Rec yds	23.5	15	32% / 50%	10	under
2023 W2	Rec	3.5	3	32% / 48%	3	under
2023 W2	Rush yds	50.5	45	43% / 50%	50	under
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 48%	0	under
2023 W1	Rec yds	20.5	–	– / 50%	64	over
2023 W1	Rec	3.5	–	– / 48%	6	over
2023 W1	Rush yds	56.5	–	– / 48%	25	under

Our calls

2026 W4 Over 32.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Over 32.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Over 34.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Over 48.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Over 48.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 48.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Over 57.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2025 W18 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Over 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 10.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 32.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Over 32.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 11.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 11.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 39.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 39.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 39.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 39.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 8.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 29.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 29.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 37.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 7.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 7.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 27.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 27.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 27.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 27.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 37.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 37.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Over 14.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Under 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Under 46.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Under 46.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Over 12.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Over 44.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W6 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology