RB · DEN · 117 lines since 2023
RJ Harvey Player Props
Closing consensus lines for RJ Harvey, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 33% — we make it 45%
- Line 11.5 yds longest rec — we project 11 (P(over) 48%)
- Line 27.5 rec yds — we project 21 (P(over) 37%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 46%)
- Line 58.5 rush + rec yds — we project 58 (P(over) 49%)
- Line 26.5 rush yds — we project 34 (P(over) 60%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 8, under 12 (20 graded)
- Receiving yards over 13, under 6 (19 graded)
- Receptions over 13, under 6 (19 graded)
- Anytime TD over 9, under 11 (20 graded)
- Rush attempts over 6, under 11 (17 graded)
- Longest reception over 9, under 7 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: model 27–34 · Missed tackles 6–8 · Pre-snap motion 1–3 · Big favourite (6.5+) 4–5 · Short week 2–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 33% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 11.5 | 11 | 48% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 21 | 37% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 58% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush+rec yds | 58.5 | 58 | 49% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 26.5 | 34 | 60% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 17 | 41% / 50% | 68 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 48% | 10 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 30 | 77% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 50% TD chance | 50% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 13 | 40% / 51% | 41 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 36 | 75% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 56% TD chance | 56% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 13 | 41% / 50% | 23 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 48% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 53 | 92% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 52% TD chance | 52% / 61% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 11.5 | 10 | 44% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 15 | 39% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 24% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush att | 14.5 | 12 | 30% / 48% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 56.5 | 47 | 38% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 50% TD chance | 50% / 61% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 10.5 | 9.3 | 44% / 49% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 14 | 44% / 51% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 52% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 14.5 | 11 | 27% / 53% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 56.5 | 46 | 37% / 51% | 43 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 54% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 10.5 | 8.9 | 42% / 48% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 13 | 45% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 53% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 14.5 | 10 | 17% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 49.5 | 38 | 33% / 51% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 10.5 | 8.2 | 38% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 14 | 34% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 27% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 13.5 | 9 | 17% / 47% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 50.5 | 30 | 23% / 50% | 65 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 55% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 8.5 | 8.4 | 50% / 52% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 12 | 46% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 47% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 13.5 | 8 | 13% / 53% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 52.5 | 30 | 20% / 51% | 75 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 51% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 10.5 | 8.0 | 39% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 11 | 36% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 49% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 12.5 | 7 | 9% / 51% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 56.5 | 26 | 13% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.3 | 44% / 50% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 13 | 40% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 54% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush att | 12.5 | 13 | 51% / 53% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 48.5 | 49 | 51% / 51% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 10.5 | 9.1 | 44% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 14 | 46% / 52% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 48% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 22 | 47% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 7.5 | 6.4 | 43% / 49% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 8.8 | 47% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 17 | 49% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 9.5 | 9 | 48% / 47% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 13 | 49% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush att | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 46% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 20 | 57% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.7 | 47% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 13 | 48% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 5.5 | 4 | 36% / 44% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 17 | 38% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.6 | 46% / 48% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 13 | 48% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 40% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 6.5 | 6 | 41% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 26 | 45% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 7.5 | 8.1 | 53% / 53% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 12 | 50% / 51% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 61% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 7.5 | 6 | 28% / 46% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 23 | 38% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 7.5 | 7.4 | 50% / 53% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 9.7 | 48% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 6.5 | 5 | 27% / 43% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 23 | 46% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 7.5 | 4.5 | 36% / 48% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 5.3 | 36% / 50% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 6.5 | 5 | 25% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 20 | 45% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 7.5 | 4 | 14% / 46% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 24 | 39% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 8.5 | – | – / 53% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 12.5 | – | – / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 37% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 9.5 | – | – / 52% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 41.5 | – | – / 50% | 70 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 15.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 15.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 20.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 20.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 17.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 17.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 14.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 56.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 56.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 14.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 56.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 56.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 56.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 49.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 13.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 50.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 50.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 50.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 13.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 13.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 52.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 52.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 12.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 12.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 56.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 56.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 56.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 48.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology