Edgehalla

TE · PIT · 70 lines since 2023

Robert Tonyan Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Robert Tonyan, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 3% — we make it 6%

Over/under record by market

  • Receiving yards over 4, under 4 (8 graded)
  • Receptions over 1, under 4 (5 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 0, under 55 (55 graded)
  • Longest reception over 0, under 1 (1 graded)

Our calls on him: model 8–5 · Short week 2–1 · Starters out on defense 0–1 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

Robert Tonyan prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 3%–…
2026 W4Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 3%0under
2026 W3Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 4%0under
2026 W2Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 3%0under
2026 W1Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 7%0under
2025 W18Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 6%0under
2025 W16Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 5%0under
2025 W15Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 3%0under
2025 W14Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 5%0under
2025 W13Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 12%0under
2025 W13Long rec5.506% / 52%0under
2025 W13Rec yds6.506% / 49%0under
2025 W13Rec0.5010% / 63%0under
2025 W12Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 4%0under
2025 W11Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 4%0under
2025 W9Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 4%0under
2025 W8Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 4%0under
2025 W7Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 4%0under
2025 W6Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 5%0under
2025 W5Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 4%0under
2025 W4Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 4%0under
2025 W3Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 4%0under
2025 W2Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 4%0under
2025 W1Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 5%0under
2024 W8Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 5%0under
2024 W7Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 5%0under
2024 W5Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 5%0under
2024 W4Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 7%0under
2024 W3Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 6%0under
2023 W18Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 28%0under
2023 W18Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 16%0under
2023 W17Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 28%0under
2023 W17Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 19%0under
2023 W16Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 17%0under
2023 W16Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 10%0under
2023 W15Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 5%0under
2023 W15Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 5%0under
2023 W14Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 6%0under
2023 W14Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 6%0under
2023 W12Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 8%0under
2023 W12Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 9%0under
2023 W11Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 8%0under
2023 W11Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 7%0under
2023 W11Rec yds4.5035% / 49%0under
2023 W11Rec0.5047% / 56%0under
2023 W10Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 8%0under
2023 W10Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 10%0under
2023 W10Rec yds4.5037% / 51%0under
2023 W10Rec0.5049% / 59%0under
2023 W9Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 7%0under
2023 W9Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 8%0under
2023 W9Rec yds4.50.337% / 49%11over
2023 W9Rec0.5151% / 57%1over
2023 W8Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 8%0under
2023 W8Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 8%0under
2023 W8Rec yds4.51.440% / 50%8over
2023 W7Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 8%0under
2023 W7Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 10%0under
2023 W7Rec yds6.53.841% / 50%0under
2023 W7Rec0.5162% / 64%0under
2023 W6Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 12%0under
2023 W6Rec yds7.55.946% / 51%11over
2023 W5Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 8%0under
2023 W5Rec yds4.51.642% / 50%10over
2023 W4Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 10%0under
2023 W3Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 6%0under
2023 W2Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 8%0under
2023 W2Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 8%0under
2023 W1Any TD––– / 13%0under
2023 W1Any TD––– / 15%0under

Our calls

  • 2025 W13 Under 5.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W13 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W13 Under 6.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W13 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W11 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W11 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W10 Over 4.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W10 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W10 Under 4.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W10 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W9 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W9 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W8 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W7 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W6 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W6 Under 7.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W5 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W5 Under 4.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology