WR · PIT · 58 lines since 2023
Roman Wilson Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Roman Wilson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 26% — we make it 16%
- Line 19.5 yds longest rec — we project 21 (P(over) 54%)
- Line 39.5 rec yds — we project 39 (P(over) 49%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 42%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 7, under 4 (11 graded)
- Receptions over 5, under 3 (8 graded)
- Anytime TD over 4, under 14 (18 graded)
- Longest reception over 4, under 4 (8 graded)
Our calls on him: Short week 0–2 · model 10–8 · Wind 15+ mph 1–1 · Missed tackles 1–0 · Starters out on defense 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 26% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 19.5 | 21 | 54% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 39 | 49% / 52% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 41% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 25 | 56% / 52% | 74 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 41% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 15% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 25 | 52% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 44% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 16 | 26% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 28% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 16 | 57% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 43% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 6% | – | void |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 12% | – | void |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 5% | – | void |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | – | void |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.0 | 46% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 9.5 | 46% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 13.5 | 8.4 | 38% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 11 | 32% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 61% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 10.5 | 11 | 51% / 49% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 13 | 47% / 50% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 9.5 | 7.2 | 43% / 49% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 8.0 | 45% / 51% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 45% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 10.5 | 9.6 | 47% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 11 | 44% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 7.5 | 0 | 26% / 49% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 0 | 21% / 51% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 8.5 | 0 | 24% / 51% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 0 | 22% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 7.5 | 0 | 31% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | – | – / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | – | – / 10% | – | void |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | – | – / 12% | – | void |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | – | – / 10% | – | void |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 12% | – | void |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 15% | – | void |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 21.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 11.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 14.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 14.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 10.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 11.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology