Edgehalla

RB · CHI · 101 lines since 2023

Roschon Johnson Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Roschon Johnson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 18% — we make it 17%
  • Line 19.5 rush yds — we project 7.1 (P(over) 21%)

Over/under record by market

  • Rushing yards over 6, under 15 (21 graded)
  • Receiving yards over 10, under 11 (21 graded)
  • Receptions over 6, under 10 (16 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 7, under 25 (32 graded)

Our calls on him: model 22–18 · Short week 4–0 · Man coverage 1–0 · Missed tackles 4–6 · Starters out on defense 1–4 · Blitz-heavy defense 0–1 · Pre-snap motion 0–2

Line vs actual vs our projection

Roschon Johnson prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 18%–…
2026 W5Rush yds19.57.121% / 50%–…
2026 W4Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 6%0under
2026 W3Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 5%–void
2026 W2Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 4%0under
2026 W1Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 8%–void
2025 W11Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 7%–void
2025 W10Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 5%–void
2025 W7Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 5%0under
2025 W6Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 7%0under
2025 W4Any TD–25% TD chance25% / 10%–void
2025 W3Any TD–28% TD chance28% / 13%–void
2025 W2Any TD–19% TD chance19% / 20%–void
2024 W18Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 20%0under
2024 W17Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 21%0under
2024 W17Rec yds1.52.754% / 51%0under
2024 W17Rush yds9.51154% / 51%5under
2024 W16Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 28%0under
2024 W16Rec yds3.53.449% / 50%0under
2024 W16Rec0.5163% / 64%0under
2024 W16Rush yds12.51147% / 49%3under
2024 W13Any TD–25% TD chance25% / 28%0under
2024 W13Rec yds2.53.956% / 51%0under
2024 W13Rush yds9.51259% / 49%0under
2024 W12Any TD–30% TD chance30% / 32%1over
2024 W12Rec yds7.55.743% / 51%10over
2024 W12Rec1.5139% / 48%1under
2024 W12Rush yds16.51753% / 50%2under
2024 W11Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 21%1over
2024 W11Rec yds6.54.743% / 49%8over
2024 W11Rec1.5135% / 39%1under
2024 W11Rush yds12.51351% / 51%33over
2024 W10Any TD–26% TD chance26% / 27%0under
2024 W10Rec yds4.55.453% / 50%5over
2024 W10Rec1.5136% / 33%1under
2024 W10Rush yds19.52051% / 50%-4under
2024 W9Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 26%0under
2024 W8Any TD–25% TD chance25% / 27%1over
2024 W6Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 29%0under
2024 W6Rush yds23.51840% / 50%8under
2024 W5Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 28%1over
2024 W5Rec yds9.56.742% / 48%0under
2024 W5Rec1.5143% / 47%0under
2024 W5Rush yds27.52035% / 50%25under
2024 W4Any TD–19% TD chance19% / 32%1over
2024 W4Rec yds11.59.845% / 50%0under
2024 W4Rec1.5254% / 59%0under
2024 W4Rush yds30.51826% / 51%26under
2024 W3Any TD–19% TD chance19% / 17%0under
2024 W2Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 7%–void
2024 W1Any TD–34% TD chance34% / 18%–void
2023 W18Any TD–33% TD chance33% / 31%0under
2023 W17Any TD–29% TD chance29% / 28%1over
2023 W17Rec yds15.51445% / 49%38over
2023 W17Rec1.5270% / 62%3over
2023 W17Rush yds26.52242% / 51%21under
2023 W16Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 37%0under
2023 W16Rec yds12.51147% / 50%16over
2023 W16Rush yds36.52023% / 53%37over
2023 W15Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 13%0under
2023 W15Rec yds5.56.754% / 49%24over
2023 W15Rec1.5149% / 34%4over
2023 W15Rush yds9.51051% / 50%36over
2023 W14Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 24%0under
2023 W14Rec yds10.59.447% / 50%0under
2023 W14Rec1.5260% / 53%0under
2023 W14Rush yds19.51540% / 52%6under
2023 W12Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 26%0under
2023 W12Rec yds8.58.149% / 50%40over
2023 W12Rec1.5250% / 46%5over
2023 W12Rush yds23.51328% / 46%35over
2023 W11Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 20%0under
2023 W11Rec yds8.51056% / 49%0under
2023 W10Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 26%0under
2023 W10Rec yds9.56.741% / 49%14over
2023 W10Rec1.5145% / 50%4over
2023 W10Rush yds20.51742% / 50%18under
2023 W9Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 26%0under
2023 W9Rec yds10.57.138% / 51%9under
2023 W9Rec1.5251% / 60%1under
2023 W9Rush yds28.51318% / 50%6under
2023 W8Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 31%0under
2023 W8Rec yds11.56.834% / 52%10under
2023 W8Rec2.5124% / 41%3over
2023 W8Rush yds29.51419% / 51%21under
2023 W5Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 26%0under
2023 W5Rec yds9.51154% / 50%0under
2023 W5Rec1.5268% / 53%0under
2023 W5Rush yds22.51841% / 51%19under
2023 W4Any TD–25% TD chance25% / 34%0under
2023 W4Rec yds11.51865% / 50%2under
2023 W4Rec2.5361% / 37%1under
2023 W4Rush yds35.52634% / 52%13under
2023 W3Any TD–29% TD chance29% / 27%0under
2023 W3Rec yds10.51359% / 50%11over
2023 W3Rec1.5376% / 55%2over
2023 W3Rush yds27.51935% / 50%38over
2023 W2Any TD–42% TD chance42% / 26%0under
2023 W2Rec yds5.52087% / 49%10over
2023 W2Rush yds23.53366% / 49%32over
2023 W1Any TD––– / 13%1over

Our calls

  • 2026 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) void
  • 2025 W10 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) void
  • 2025 W7 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W6 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) void
  • 2025 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) void
  • 2024 W17 Under 9.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W13 Over 9.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W13 Under 9.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W12 Over 7.5 rec yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W12 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W12 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W12 Under 16.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W11 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W11 Over 12.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W10 Over 19.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W10 Under 19.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W6 Under 23.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W5 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W5 Over 27.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W5 Over 27.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W5 Under 27.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W4 Over 30.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W4 Under 30.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) void
  • 2024 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) void
  • 2023 W17 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W17 Under 26.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W16 Under 36.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W16 Under 36.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W15 Over 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W15 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W15 Over 9.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W14 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W14 Over 19.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W14 Under 19.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W12 Under 1.5 receptions (Blitz-heavy defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W12 Under 23.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W12 Under 23.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W11 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W10 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W10 Over 20.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W10 Over 20.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W10 Under 20.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W10 Under 20.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W9 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W9 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W9 Under 28.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W8 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W8 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W8 Under 29.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W8 Over 29.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W5 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W5 Under 22.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W5 Under 22.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W4 Over 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W4 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W4 Over 35.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology