WR · DAL · 84 lines since 2023
Ryan Flournoy Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Ryan Flournoy, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 25% — we make it 25%
- Line 15.5 yds longest rec — we project 18 (P(over) 57%)
- Line 31.5 rec yds — we project 30 (P(over) 48%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 32%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 9, under 9 (18 graded)
- Receptions over 7, under 7 (14 graded)
- Anytime TD over 4, under 26 (30 graded)
- Longest reception over 5, under 6 (11 graded)
Our calls on him: Short week 0–1 · model 12–13 · Starters out on defense 2–0 · Dome team outdoors 2–2 · Pre-snap motion 1–1 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 25% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 15.5 | 18 | 57% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 30 | 48% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 43% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 29 | 44% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 33% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 30 | 49% / 49% | 22 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 36% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 27 | 47% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 33 | 60% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 23 | 46% / 51% | 68 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 14.5 | 15 | 50% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 22 | 42% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 53% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 12.5 | 15 | 56% / 49% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 20 | 51% / 49% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 59% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 14% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 9.5 | 9.7 | 50% / 49% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 12 | 50% / 51% | 115 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 46% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 6.5 | 8.3 | 55% / 51% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 10 | 52% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 41% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 9.5 | 7.7 | 45% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 9.1 | 49% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 15% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 10.5 | 11 | 52% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 14 | 53% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 7.5 | 12 | 61% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 15 | 62% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 38% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 5.5 | 17 | 77% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 25 | 77% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 16.5 | 15 | 47% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 22 | 37% / 49% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 22% / 40% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 12.5 | 7.0 | 35% / 51% | 46 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 8.0 | 28% / 49% | 114 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 61% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 4.5 | 5.4 | 53% / 49% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 5.9 | 54% / 49% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 5% | – | void |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 5% | – | void |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | – | void |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 0 | 22% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 14% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 0 | 18% / 51% | 19 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | – | – / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | – | – / 7% | – | void |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | – | – / 5% | – | void |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 10% | – | void |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 6% | – | void |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Under 31.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 25.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 25.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 27.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 19.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 8.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 5.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 33.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 33.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 20.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 20.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 12.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology