WR · MIA · 41 lines since 2023
Ryan Miller Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Ryan Miller, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 6% — we make it 5%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 3, under 3 (6 graded)
- Receptions over 2, under 3 (5 graded)
- Anytime TD over 4, under 22 (26 graded)
- Longest reception over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
Our calls on him: model 5–8 · Starters out on defense 2–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 6.3 | 55% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 68% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 3% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | – | void |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 6% | – | void |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 7.5 | 1.9 | 37% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 2.0 | 38% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 4% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 7.1 | 29% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 62% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 19 | 65% / 50% | 11 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 16 | 31% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 30% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 0 | 30% / 49% | 19 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 14% / 34% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | – | – / 7% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 20.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Over 10.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology