RB · CHI · 13 lines since 2023

Salvon Ahmed Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Salvon Ahmed, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

Over/under record by market

Rushing yards over 0, under 2 (2 graded)
Receiving yards over 1, under 0 (1 graded)
Receptions over 1, under 0 (1 graded)
Anytime TD over 2, under 6 (8 graded)

Our calls on him: model 2–3 · Missed tackles 0–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

Salvon Ahmed prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	–	– / 6%	–	…
2023 W11	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 15%	1	over
2023 W9	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 16%	0	under
2023 W8	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 23%	0	under
2023 W7	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 21%	0	under
2023 W6	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 32%	1	over
2023 W6	Rec yds	7.5	0.7	32% / 50%	11	over
2023 W6	Rec	1.5	1	18% / 41%	3	over
2023 W6	Rush yds	24.5	3.4	8% / 49%	23	under
2023 W4	Any TD	–	8% TD chance	8% / 8%	0	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 23%	0	under
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 24%	0	under
2023 W1	Rush yds	20.5	–	– / 51%	11	under

Our calls

2023 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
2023 W9 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2023 W6 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2023 W6 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2023 W6 Over 24.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2023 W6 Under 24.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology