RB · CIN · 171 lines since 2023
Samaje Perine Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Samaje Perine, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 17% — we make it 23%
- Line 15.5 rush yds — we project 20 (P(over) 58%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 11, under 14 (25 graded)
- Receiving yards over 23, under 18 (41 graded)
- Receptions over 11, under 17 (28 graded)
- Anytime TD over 6, under 47 (53 graded)
- Rush attempts over 5, under 5 (10 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 6 (12 graded)
Our calls on him: model 49–55 · Missed tackles 4–2 · Starters out on defense 3–0 · Pre-snap motion 0–1 · Big favourite (6.5+) 0–1 · Big underdog (6.5+) 1–2 · Short week 0–2 · Blitz-heavy defense 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 17% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 20 | 58% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 6.2 | 44% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 20 | 66% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 4.6 | 38% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 21 | 64% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 4.8 | 41% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 19 | 56% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 6.1 | 49% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 39% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 32 | 75% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 27 | 58% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 5.5 | 2.2 | 39% / 51% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 2.3 | 38% / 50% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 22% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 8.5 | 6 | 30% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 34.5 | 31 | 44% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 4.5 | 1.7 | 40% / 48% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 1.7 | 41% / 49% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 55% / 66% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 8.5 | 7 | 30% / 45% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 33.5 | 30 | 44% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 4.5 | 2.1 | 40% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 2.2 | 42% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 24% / 35% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 6.5 | 5 | 34% / 43% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 25 | 48% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 4.5 | 1.4 | 37% / 51% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 1.5 | 36% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 20% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 7.5 | 5 | 24% / 54% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 24 | 38% / 51% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 6.5 | 1.7 | 32% / 49% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 1.7 | 33% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 23% / 43% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 45% / 48% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 20 | 56% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 4.5 | 1.3 | 39% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 1.4 | 37% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 19% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 6.5 | 4 | 21% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 22 | 37% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 6.5 | 1.4 | 30% / 48% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 1.4 | 33% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 19% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush att | 6.5 | 4 | 14% / 44% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 14 | 32% / 50% | 94 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 7.5 | 3.5 | 32% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 3.9 | 34% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 4.5 | 3 | 20% / 57% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 8.2 | 29% / 49% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 4.5 | 1.4 | 34% / 51% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 1.5 | 36% / 51% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 22% / 35% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 4.2 | 31% / 48% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 3.5 | 0 | 36% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 0 | 38% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 50% / 62% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 6.5 | 0.2 | 24% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 0.2 | 24% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 17% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 2.5 | 1 | 24% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 3.3 | 30% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 5.5 | 1.8 | 34% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 1.9 | 36% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 6.3 | 44% / 49% | 20 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 5.7 | 40% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 49% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 5.8 | 40% / 49% | 23 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 8.8 | 48% / 51% | 11 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 7.6 | 50% / 51% | 37 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 6.1 | 46% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 7.3 | 34% / 51% | 24 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 18% / 39% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 7 | 26% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 10.0 | 38% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 8.1 | 46% / 50% | 14 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 5.8 | 21% / 53% | 15 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 15% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 1.1 | 10% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 7.1 | 43% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 15 | 69% / 51% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 7.5 | 12 | 63% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 18 | 50% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 14 | 52% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 14 | 71% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 17 | 49% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 14 | 48% / 49% | 36 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 18 | 54% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 14 | 56% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 15 | 43% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 16 | 47% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 45% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 16 | 55% / 51% | 35 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 68% / 61% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 17 | 60% / 47% | 31 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 70% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 19 | 57% / 49% | 16 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 61% / 39% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 13 | 45% / 50% | 23 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 21 | 56% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 16 | 45% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 39 | 78% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 16 | 59% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 31.5 | 45 | 70% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 10.5 | – | – / 51% | 37 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rush yds | 38.5 | – | – / 52% | 41 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 13.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 14.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 14.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 17.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 22.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 22.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 22.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 5.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 8.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 8.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 34.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 8.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 33.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 7.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 30.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 30.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 4.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 16.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 29.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 22.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 22.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 17.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology