RB · PHI · 232 lines since 2023

Saquon Barkley Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Saquon Barkley, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 51% — we make it 36%

Over/under record by market

Rushing yards over 28, under 22 (50 graded)
Receiving yards over 19, under 31 (50 graded)
Receptions over 16, under 33 (49 graded)
Anytime TD over 22, under 28 (50 graded)
Rush attempts over 9, under 7 (16 graded)
Longest reception over 6, under 10 (16 graded)

Our calls on him: model 57–49 · Missed tackles 20–18 · Starters out on defense 3–3 · Big favourite (6.5+) 2–4 · Pre-snap motion 11–4 · Explosive plays 2–1 · Short week 1–1 · Stacked boxes 1–0 · Red-zone defense 2–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

Saquon Barkley prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	36% TD chance	36% / 51%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	42% TD chance	42% / 46%	0	under
2026 W4	Rec yds	14.5	10	39% / 50%	2	under
2026 W4	Rec	2.5	2	33% / 43%	1	under
2026 W4	Rush yds	68.5	57	38% / 50%	8	under
2026 W3	Any TD	–	46% TD chance	46% / 53%	0	under
2026 W3	Rec yds	13.5	11	44% / 51%	-2	under
2026 W3	Rec	2.5	2	29% / 40%	1	under
2026 W3	Rush yds	72.5	61	39% / 50%	82	over
2026 W2	Any TD	–	49% TD chance	49% / 54%	0	under
2026 W2	Rec yds	10.5	9.2	47% / 51%	11	over
2026 W2	Rec	1.5	1	50% / 60%	1	under
2026 W2	Rush yds	80.5	73	44% / 50%	9	under
2026 W1	Any TD	–	65% TD chance	65% / 57%	0	under
2026 W1	Rec yds	15.5	17	53% / 51%	-3	under
2026 W1	Rec	2.5	2	45% / 48%	1	under
2026 W1	Rush yds	76.5	94	65% / 50%	83	over
2025 W17	Any TD	–	46% TD chance	46% / 50%	0	under
2025 W17	Long rec	8.5	8.2	49% / 51%	0	under
2025 W17	Rec yds	12.5	12	48% / 50%	0	under
2025 W17	Rec	2.5	2	34% / 39%	0	under
2025 W17	Rush att	18.5	16	37% / 51%	19	over
2025 W17	Rush yds	86.5	70	34% / 51%	68	under
2025 W16	Any TD	–	55% TD chance	55% / 56%	1	over
2025 W16	Long rec	9.5	9.7	51% / 48%	0	under
2025 W16	Rec yds	14.5	14	49% / 50%	0	under
2025 W16	Rec	2.5	2	37% / 43%	0	under
2025 W16	Rush att	18.5	17	42% / 52%	21	over
2025 W16	Rush yds	82.5	78	46% / 50%	132	over
2025 W15	Any TD	–	57% TD chance	57% / 54%	1	over
2025 W15	Long rec	9.5	10	52% / 50%	8	under
2025 W15	Rec yds	14.5	14	49% / 49%	14	under
2025 W15	Rec	2.5	2	36% / 45%	2	under
2025 W15	Rush att	19.5	18	44% / 49%	22	over
2025 W15	Rush yds	80.5	84	54% / 50%	78	under
2025 W14	Any TD	–	48% TD chance	48% / 49%	1	over
2025 W14	Long rec	9.5	9.1	48% / 51%	0	under
2025 W14	Rec yds	16.5	14	45% / 50%	0	under
2025 W14	Rec	2.5	2	46% / 50%	0	under
2025 W14	Rush att	17.5	15	37% / 47%	20	over
2025 W14	Rush yds	70.5	61	39% / 50%	122	over
2025 W13	Any TD	–	56% TD chance	56% / 56%	0	under
2025 W13	Long rec	11.5	11	48% / 48%	0	under
2025 W13	Rec yds	18.5	19	51% / 50%	0	under
2025 W13	Rec	2.5	3	52% / 54%	0	under
2025 W13	Rush att	17.5	16	39% / 51%	13	under
2025 W13	Rush yds	78.5	69	41% / 50%	56	under
2025 W12	Any TD	–	51% TD chance	51% / 53%	0	under
2025 W12	Long rec	10.5	10	48% / 49%	16	over
2025 W12	Rec yds	16.5	15	47% / 50%	52	over
2025 W12	Rec	2.5	2	42% / 49%	7	over
2025 W12	Rush att	17.5	16	40% / 52%	10	under
2025 W12	Rush yds	72.5	71	48% / 50%	22	under
2025 W11	Any TD	–	52% TD chance	52% / 51%	0	under
2025 W11	Long rec	11.5	10.0	43% / 47%	7	under
2025 W11	Rec yds	16.5	16	48% / 50%	7	under
2025 W11	Rec	2.5	2	45% / 53%	1	under
2025 W11	Rush att	17.5	14	29% / 48%	26	over
2025 W11	Rush yds	70.5	63	42% / 50%	83	over
2025 W10	Any TD	–	48% TD chance	48% / 50%	0	under
2025 W10	Long rec	9.5	9.3	49% / 50%	41	over
2025 W10	Rec yds	15.5	15	49% / 51%	41	over
2025 W10	Rec	2.5	2	49% / 56%	3	over
2025 W10	Rush att	17.5	12	19% / 51%	22	over
2025 W10	Rush yds	77.5	56	28% / 50%	60	under
2025 W8	Any TD	–	55% TD chance	55% / 59%	1	over
2025 W8	Long rec	9.5	11	56% / 52%	12	over
2025 W8	Rec yds	16.5	19	54% / 50%	24	over
2025 W8	Rec	2.5	3	54% / 52%	4	over
2025 W8	Rush att	18.5	13	22% / 48%	14	under
2025 W8	Rush yds	85.5	61	26% / 51%	150	over
2025 W7	Any TD	–	53% TD chance	53% / 55%	0	under
2025 W7	Long rec	10.5	9.7	46% / 50%	-2	under
2025 W7	Rec yds	17.5	15	44% / 52%	-2	under
2025 W7	Rec	3.5	2	26% / 39%	1	under
2025 W7	Rush att	17.5	15	33% / 49%	18	over
2025 W7	Rush yds	75.5	64	39% / 50%	44	under
2025 W6	Any TD	–	55% TD chance	55% / 62%	0	under
2025 W6	Long rec	9.5	10	54% / 52%	10	over
2025 W6	Rec yds	17.5	17	49% / 51%	9	under
2025 W6	Rec	2.5	3	50% / 51%	2	under
2025 W6	Rush att	18.5	15	29% / 50%	12	under
2025 W6	Rush yds	85.5	67	32% / 51%	58	under
2025 W5	Any TD	–	59% TD chance	59% / 60%	1	over
2025 W5	Long rec	8.5	9.4	55% / 51%	47	over
2025 W5	Rec yds	16.5	16	48% / 51%	58	over
2025 W5	Rec	2.5	2	47% / 53%	3	over
2025 W5	Rush att	18.5	14	28% / 51%	6	under
2025 W5	Rush yds	82.5	66	35% / 50%	30	under
2025 W4	Any TD	–	57% TD chance	57% / 58%	1	over
2025 W4	Long rec	9.5	9.2	48% / 49%	15	over
2025 W4	Rec yds	16.5	15	45% / 51%	31	over
2025 W4	Rec	2.5	2	45% / 51%	4	over
2025 W4	Rush att	18.5	16	35% / 48%	19	over
2025 W4	Rush yds	78.5	78	49% / 50%	43	under
2025 W3	Any TD	–	62% TD chance	62% / 60%	0	under
2025 W3	Long rec	9.5	9.5	50% / 50%	5	under
2025 W3	Rec yds	13.5	14	52% / 50%	9	under
2025 W3	Rec	2.5	2	42% / 42%	4	over
2025 W3	Rush att	20.5	16	26% / 48%	18	under
2025 W3	Rush yds	91.5	80	41% / 50%	46	under
2025 W2	Any TD	–	54% TD chance	54% / 60%	1	over
2025 W2	Long rec	10.5	9.9	47% / 50%	6	under
2025 W2	Rec yds	16.5	15	48% / 50%	6	under
2025 W2	Rec	2.5	2	42% / 53%	2	under
2025 W2	Rush att	18.5	13	18% / 48%	22	over
2025 W2	Rush yds	87.5	67	32% / 49%	88	over
2025 W1	Any TD	–	73% TD chance	73% / 67%	1	over
2025 W1	Long rec	9.5	10	54% / 49%	8	under
2025 W1	Rec yds	13.5	15	53% / 50%	24	over
2025 W1	Rec	2.5	2	36% / 38%	4	over
2025 W1	Rush att	19.5	24	70% / 50%	18	under
2025 W1	Rush yds	97.5	145	77% / 50%	60	under
2024 W17	Any TD	–	62% TD chance	62% / 71%	0	under
2024 W17	Rec yds	11.5	11	49% / 50%	2	under
2024 W17	Rec	2.5	2	30% / 37%	2	under
2024 W17	Rush yds	114.5	137	63% / 53%	167	over
2024 W16	Any TD	–	61% TD chance	61% / 66%	1	over
2024 W16	Rec yds	12.5	14	53% / 49%	0	under
2024 W16	Rec	2.5	2	35% / 37%	0	under
2024 W16	Rush yds	98.5	105	55% / 51%	150	over
2024 W15	Any TD	–	60% TD chance	60% / 65%	0	under
2024 W15	Rec yds	12.5	14	54% / 50%	9	under
2024 W15	Rec	1.5	2	59% / 62%	2	over
2024 W15	Rush yds	100.5	101	51% / 50%	65	under
2024 W14	Any TD	–	69% TD chance	69% / 73%	0	under
2024 W14	Rec yds	16.5	21	58% / 50%	0	under
2024 W14	Rec	2.5	2	48% / 44%	0	under
2024 W14	Rush yds	113.5	129	59% / 52%	124	over
2024 W13	Any TD	–	63% TD chance	63% / 64%	1	over
2024 W13	Rec yds	20.5	17	44% / 50%	10	under
2024 W13	Rec	2.5	2	47% / 53%	2	under
2024 W13	Rush yds	87.5	100	60% / 50%	107	over
2024 W12	Any TD	–	64% TD chance	64% / 65%	1	over
2024 W12	Rec yds	14.5	17	54% / 51%	47	over
2024 W12	Rec	2.5	2	41% / 45%	4	over
2024 W12	Rush yds	95.5	98	52% / 50%	255	over
2024 W11	Any TD	–	61% TD chance	61% / 69%	1	over
2024 W11	Rec yds	13.5	12	48% / 50%	52	over
2024 W11	Rec	2.5	2	32% / 38%	2	under
2024 W11	Rush yds	95.5	91	46% / 51%	146	over
2024 W10	Any TD	–	60% TD chance	60% / 67%	0	under
2024 W10	Rec yds	15.5	14	47% / 49%	12	under
2024 W10	Rec	2.5	2	36% / 45%	1	under
2024 W10	Rush yds	93.5	96	53% / 51%	66	under
2024 W9	Any TD	–	58% TD chance	58% / 66%	1	over
2024 W9	Rec yds	13.5	14	52% / 50%	40	over
2024 W9	Rec	2.5	2	38% / 44%	3	over
2024 W9	Rush yds	86.5	83	47% / 49%	159	over
2024 W8	Any TD	–	50% TD chance	50% / 64%	0	under
2024 W8	Rec yds	14.5	13	48% / 51%	3	under
2024 W8	Rec	2.5	2	44% / 47%	1	under
2024 W8	Rush yds	78.5	73	45% / 51%	108	over
2024 W7	Any TD	–	53% TD chance	53% / 62%	1	over
2024 W7	Rec yds	15.5	13	44% / 52%	11	under
2024 W7	Rec	2.5	2	39% / 48%	2	under
2024 W7	Rush yds	80.5	64	33% / 51%	176	over
2024 W6	Any TD	–	57% TD chance	57% / 65%	0	under
2024 W6	Rec yds	16.5	17	52% / 50%	7	under
2024 W6	Rec	2.5	2	48% / 48%	2	under
2024 W6	Rush yds	87.5	79	42% / 50%	47	under
2024 W4	Any TD	–	55% TD chance	55% / 59%	0	under
2024 W4	Rec yds	22.5	18	41% / 51%	32	over
2024 W4	Rec	3.5	3	38% / 49%	2	under
2024 W4	Rush yds	76.5	68	43% / 51%	84	over
2024 W3	Any TD	–	56% TD chance	56% / 61%	1	over
2024 W3	Rec yds	21.5	17	41% / 49%	9	under
2024 W3	Rec	3.5	2	30% / 40%	4	over
2024 W3	Rush yds	71.5	59	38% / 49%	147	over
2024 W2	Any TD	–	55% TD chance	55% / 66%	0	under
2024 W2	Rec yds	20.5	14	35% / 51%	21	over
2024 W2	Rec	2.5	2	33% / 58%	4	over
2024 W2	Rush yds	77.5	63	35% / 51%	95	over
2024 W1	Any TD	–	51% TD chance	51% / 53%	1	over
2024 W1	Rec yds	17.5	16	46% / 52%	23	over
2024 W1	Rec	2.5	2	41% / 57%	2	under
2024 W1	Rush yds	65.5	49	31% / 50%	109	over
2023 W18	Any TD	–	44% TD chance	44% / 53%	1	over
2023 W18	Rec yds	18.5	16	44% / 50%	51	over
2023 W18	Rec	3.5	3	35% / 42%	2	under
2023 W18	Rush yds	65.5	60	44% / 51%	46	under
2023 W17	Any TD	–	44% TD chance	44% / 53%	0	under
2023 W17	Rec yds	17.5	17	49% / 50%	19	over
2023 W17	Rec	2.5	3	57% / 58%	3	over
2023 W17	Rush yds	67.5	55	36% / 51%	39	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 43%	1	over
2023 W16	Rec yds	18.5	13	34% / 48%	4	under
2023 W16	Rec	2.5	3	52% / 58%	3	over
2023 W16	Rush yds	52.5	43	36% / 48%	80	over
2023 W15	Any TD	–	39% TD chance	39% / 52%	0	under
2023 W15	Rec yds	18.5	18	49% / 49%	23	over
2023 W15	Rec	3.5	3	43% / 43%	2	under
2023 W15	Rush yds	67.5	61	43% / 51%	14	under
2023 W14	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 50%	1	over
2023 W14	Rec yds	18.5	17	47% / 50%	15	under
2023 W14	Rec	3.5	3	41% / 45%	3	under
2023 W14	Rush yds	70.5	53	31% / 51%	86	over
2023 W12	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 45%	0	under
2023 W12	Rec yds	21.5	20	47% / 50%	6	under
2023 W12	Rec	3.5	4	51% / 48%	1	under
2023 W12	Rush yds	71.5	61	39% / 51%	46	under
2023 W11	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 48%	1	over
2023 W11	Rec yds	17.5	15	42% / 50%	57	over
2023 W11	Rec	3.5	3	39% / 42%	4	over
2023 W11	Rush yds	73.5	57	33% / 50%	83	over
2023 W10	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 36%	0	under
2023 W10	Rec yds	20.5	12	26% / 51%	-5	under
2023 W10	Rec	3.5	3	42% / 49%	1	under
2023 W10	Rush yds	64.5	52	35% / 50%	66	over
2023 W9	Any TD	–	44% TD chance	44% / 52%	0	under
2023 W9	Rec yds	23.5	21	45% / 50%	23	under
2023 W9	Rec	3.5	3	50% / 56%	3	under
2023 W9	Rush yds	78.5	67	37% / 50%	90	over
2023 W8	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 45%	0	under
2023 W8	Rec yds	21.5	16	37% / 50%	0	under
2023 W8	Rec	3.5	3	44% / 47%	3	under
2023 W8	Rush yds	72.5	56	30% / 50%	128	over
2023 W7	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 49%	1	over
2023 W7	Rec yds	20.5	14	33% / 50%	41	over
2023 W7	Rec	3.5	3	40% / 46%	3	under
2023 W7	Rush yds	69.5	47	24% / 49%	77	over
2023 W6	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 36%	0	under
2023 W6	Rec yds	15.5	13	42% / 50%	5	under
2023 W6	Rush yds	48.5	38	35% / 50%	93	over
2023 W2	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 55%	1	over
2023 W2	Rec yds	21.5	11	26% / 49%	29	over
2023 W2	Rec	3.5	2	21% / 45%	6	over
2023 W2	Rush yds	68.5	23	5% / 52%	63	under
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 49%	0	under
2023 W1	Rec yds	22.5	–	– / 49%	12	under
2023 W1	Rec	3.5	–	– / 48%	3	under
2023 W1	Rush yds	68.5	–	– / 51%	51	under

Our calls

2026 W4 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Under 68.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Under 68.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Under 72.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Over 80.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 80.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Over 76.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Over 76.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2025 W17 Under 18.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 86.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 86.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 86.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 18.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 18.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 82.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 82.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 19.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 19.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 80.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 17.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Over 70.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 70.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 17.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 17.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 78.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 78.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 78.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 17.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 72.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 17.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 70.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 70.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 17.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 77.5 rush yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Under 77.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Under 77.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Under 77.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Over 18.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Under 18.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Under 85.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Under 85.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Under 17.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Under 75.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Under 75.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W6 Over 18.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Under 18.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W6 Under 85.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology