Edgehalla

RB · TB · 97 lines since 2023

Sean Tucker Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Sean Tucker, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 23% — we make it 14%
  • Line 12.5 rush yds — we project 9.2 (P(over) 39%)

Over/under record by market

  • Rushing yards over 7, under 9 (16 graded)
  • Receiving yards over 1, under 4 (5 graded)
  • Receptions over 1, under 4 (5 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 9, under 24 (33 graded)
  • Rush attempts over 6, under 4 (10 graded)
  • Longest reception over 2, under 3 (5 graded)

Our calls on him: model 23–18 · Starters out on defense 0–2 · Pre-snap motion 2–0 · Short week 1–0 · Big underdog (6.5+) 1–0 · Missed tackles 2–2 · Light boxes 0–3

Line vs actual vs our projection

Sean Tucker prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 23%–…
2026 W5Rush yds12.59.239% / 49%–…
2026 W4Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 8%1over
2026 W3Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 10%0under
2026 W2Any TD–19% TD chance19% / 18%–void
2025 W18Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 29%0under
2025 W18Rush att2.5480% / 54%4over
2025 W18Rush yds9.51769% / 51%-4under
2025 W17Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 34%0under
2025 W17Rush yds11.51866% / 50%8under
2025 W16Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 30%1over
2025 W16Rush att3.5567% / 50%4over
2025 W16Rush yds13.51961% / 50%3under
2025 W15Any TD–19% TD chance19% / 15%1over
2025 W15Rush att3.5573% / 48%4over
2025 W15Rush yds15.52162% / 51%7under
2025 W14Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 17%1over
2025 W14Rush yds9.52174% / 50%29over
2025 W13Any TD–30% TD chance30% / 29%0under
2025 W13Rush att8.5849% / 50%2under
2025 W13Rush yds30.53863% / 50%0under
2025 W12Any TD–25% TD chance25% / 36%0under
2025 W12Long rec5.51.029% / 51%4under
2025 W12Rec yds6.5128% / 51%4under
2025 W12Rec1.5120% / 42%1under
2025 W12Rush att13.578% / 46%12under
2025 W12Rush yds48.53329% / 49%42under
2025 W11Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 30%1over
2025 W11Rush att8.5625% / 53%19over
2025 W11Rush yds40.52424% / 50%106over
2025 W10Any TD–28% TD chance28% / 23%0under
2025 W10Rush att6.5531% / 46%9over
2025 W10Rush yds20.52049% / 51%53over
2025 W8Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 14%1over
2025 W8Long rec3.5033% / 50%0under
2025 W8Rec yds3.5033% / 49%0under
2025 W8Rec0.5045% / 63%0under
2025 W8Rush att5.5537% / 46%12over
2025 W8Rush yds20.51947% / 50%42over
2025 W7Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 15%0under
2025 W7Long rec1.51.851% / 51%2over
2025 W7Rush att3.5462% / 53%1under
2025 W7Rush yds14.51856% / 51%4under
2025 W6Any TD–26% TD chance26% / 20%1over
2025 W6Long rec6.52.733% / 50%0under
2025 W6Rec yds7.5334% / 50%0under
2025 W6Rec1.5127% / 44%0under
2025 W6Rush yds13.52268% / 50%25over
2025 W5Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 24%0under
2025 W5Long rec2.5030% / 51%3over
2025 W5Rec yds2.5030% / 51%-4under
2025 W5Rec0.5037% / 62%3over
2025 W5Rush att5.5545% / 51%3under
2025 W5Rush yds24.52246% / 49%3under
2025 W4Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 5%–void
2025 W3Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 5%–void
2025 W2Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 5%0under
2025 W1Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 11%0under
2024 W18Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 25%0under
2024 W17Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 13%0under
2024 W16Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 15%–void
2024 W15Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 10%0under
2024 W14Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 19%0under
2024 W13Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 23%–void
2024 W12Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 14%1over
2024 W10Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 15%–void
2024 W9Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 11%0under
2024 W9Rush yds5.51267% / 52%11over
2024 W8Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 25%0under
2024 W7Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 25%0under
2024 W7Rec yds7.51.832% / 51%9over
2024 W7Rec1.5122% / 44%1under
2024 W7Rush yds17.51954% / 49%29over
2024 W6Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 17%1over
2024 W5Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 6%–void
2024 W4Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 14%0under
2024 W3Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 7%0under
2024 W2Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 5%–void
2024 W1Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 9%0under
2023 W18Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 5%–void
2023 W17Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 5%–void
2023 W16Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 8%–void
2023 W15Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 5%–void
2023 W14Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 5%–void
2023 W13Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 5%–void
2023 W12Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 16%–void
2023 W11Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 5%–void
2023 W10Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 7%0under
2023 W9Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 4%–void
2023 W8Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 9%–void
2023 W7Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 10%–void
2023 W6Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 11%–void
2023 W4Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 19%–void
2023 W3Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 21%0under
2023 W3Rush yds16.51238% / 51%1under
2023 W2Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 22%0under
2023 W1Any TD––– / 20%0under

Our calls

  • 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2025 W18 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W18 Over 9.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Over 11.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Over 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Over 13.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Over 13.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Over 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W15 Over 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Under 15.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W15 Under 15.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W14 Over 9.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W13 Over 30.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W12 Under 5.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W12 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W12 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W12 Under 13.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W12 Under 13.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W12 Under 48.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W12 Under 48.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W12 Under 48.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W11 Under 8.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W11 Under 40.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W10 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W10 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W10 Under 20.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W8 Under 3.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W8 Under 3.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W8 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W8 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Over 3.5 rush attempts (Light boxes, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Over 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Over 14.5 rush yds (Light boxes, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Under 14.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W7 Over 14.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W6 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W6 Under 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W6 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W6 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W6 Under 13.5 rush yds (Light boxes, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W6 Over 13.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W5 Under 2.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W5 Under 2.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W5 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W5 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W5 Over 24.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W9 Over 5.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W7 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W7 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W7 Under 17.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W3 Under 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology