Edgehalla

RB · DET · 41 lines since 2023

Sione Vaki Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Sione Vaki, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 13% — we make it 12%
  • Line 8.5 rush yds — we project 9.2 (P(over) 52%)

Over/under record by market

  • Rushing yards over 2, under 1 (3 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 0, under 14 (14 graded)

Our calls on him: model 2–5 · Dome team outdoors 1–1 · Short week 0–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

Sione Vaki prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 13%–…
2026 W5Rush yds8.59.252% / 50%–…
2026 W4Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 12%0under
2026 W4Rush yds11.51762% / 51%0under
2026 W3Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 13%0under
2026 W3Rush yds10.51461% / 50%26over
2026 W2Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 11%0under
2026 W2Rush yds5.51575% / 48%7over
2026 W1Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 13%0under
2025 W18Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 4%–void
2025 W17Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 3%–void
2025 W16Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 4%–void
2025 W15Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 4%–void
2025 W14Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 4%–void
2025 W13Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 5%–void
2025 W12Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 5%–void
2025 W11Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 4%–void
2025 W10Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 5%0under
2025 W9Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 4%–void
2025 W7Any TD––– / 3%–void
2025 W6Any TD––– / 4%–void
2025 W4Any TD––– / 7%–void
2025 W3Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 4%–void
2025 W1Any TD––– / 4%–void
2024 W18Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 14%–void
2024 W17Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 9%0under
2024 W16Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 9%0under
2024 W15Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 4%–void
2024 W14Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 4%–void
2024 W13Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 7%–void
2024 W12Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 5%0under
2024 W11Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 6%0under
2024 W10Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 5%–void
2024 W9Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 5%–void
2024 W8Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 5%0under
2024 W7Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 4%–void
2024 W6Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 5%0under
2024 W4Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 6%–void
2024 W3Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 6%0under
2024 W2Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 10%0under
2024 W1Any TD––– / 9%0under

Our calls

  • 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W4 Under 11.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W4 Over 11.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W3 Over 10.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W2 Under 5.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W2 Over 5.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W2 Under 5.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology