WR · WAS · 156 lines since 2023
Stefon Diggs Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Stefon Diggs, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 38% — we make it 31%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 20, under 26 (46 graded)
- Receptions over 23, under 23 (46 graded)
- Anytime TD over 15, under 31 (46 graded)
- Longest reception over 8, under 9 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: model 29–21 · Explosive plays 4–3 · Middle of the field 1–2 · Pre-snap motion 12–9 · Freezing 3–1 · Red-zone defense 0–2 · Starters out on defense 1–2 · Missed tackles 2–4 · Short week 1–1 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1 · Dome team outdoors 1–1 · Contested catches 0–1 · Play action 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 38% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 52 | 45% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 48% | 5 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 37 | 53% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 50 | 50% / 51% | 47 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 43 | 50% / 50% | 55 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 66% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 20.5 | 27 | 68% / 49% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 69 | 62% / 50% | 43 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 61% / 58% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 22.5 | 28 | 68% / 49% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 87 | 68% / 51% | 101 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 7 | 70% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 17.5 | 20 | 59% / 49% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 45 | 56% / 51% | 138 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 41% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 20.5 | 20 | 50% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 45 | 42% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 19.5 | 23 | 59% / 52% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 51 | 51% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 21.5 | 26 | 64% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 67 | 56% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 51% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 21.5 | 26 | 62% / 49% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 69 | 60% / 50% | 105 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 65% / 53% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 20.5 | 21 | 53% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 53 | 47% / 50% | 46 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 58% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 20.5 | 21 | 53% / 49% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 48 | 48% / 50% | 38 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 50% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 20.5 | 21 | 52% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 49 | 42% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 19.5 | 20 | 54% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 44 | 42% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 52% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 21.5 | 23 | 54% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 58 | 45% / 51% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 19.5 | 18 | 45% / 49% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 37 | 37% / 50% | 146 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 48% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 48% / 50% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 28 | 40% / 50% | 101 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 49% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 17.5 | 17 | 47% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 30 | 32% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 28% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 18.5 | 16 | 40% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 29 | 30% / 51% | 32 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 19.5 | 21 | 55% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 47 | 50% / 51% | 57 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 45% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 58 | 48% / 50% | 81 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 58 | 41% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 49% / 57% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 51 | 38% / 50% | 77 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 38% / 52% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 56 | 49% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 45% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 63 | 50% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 53% / 52% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 45 | 44% / 50% | 94 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 50% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 44 | 42% / 49% | 37 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 60 | 50% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 63 | 50% / 51% | 87 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 53% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 70 | 51% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 52% / 57% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 74 | 54% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 39% / 45% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 65 | 47% / 51% | 48 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 35% / 45% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 74.5 | 75 | 50% / 51% | 24 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 46% / 48% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 49% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 75.5 | 84 | 57% / 50% | 74 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 59% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 75.5 | 77 | 51% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 50% / 45% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 85.5 | 96 | 58% / 50% | 34 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 6.5 | 8 | 61% / 55% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 85.5 | 91 | 54% / 50% | 86 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 59% / 55% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 86.5 | 96 | 56% / 50% | 70 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 57% / 57% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 87.5 | 85 | 48% / 48% | 58 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 55% / 55% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 85.5 | 86 | 51% / 50% | 100 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 48% / 53% | 10 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 82.5 | 89 | 55% / 50% | 121 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 56% / 54% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 48% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 82.5 | 89 | 55% / 50% | 120 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 56% / 56% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 70 | 49% / 50% | 111 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 7 | 63% / 57% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 77.5 | 75 | 47% / 50% | 66 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 51% / 48% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 70.5 | – | – / 50% | 102 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | – | – / 55% | 10 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 34.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 34.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 34.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 54.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 54.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 54.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 63.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 63.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 63.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 52.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 50.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 50.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 60.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 60.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 60.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 60.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 56.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 56.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 50.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 56.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 56.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 51.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 51.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 51.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 63.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 63.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 48.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 43.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 43.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 59.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 68.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 68.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 63.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 63.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology