WR · HOU · 103 lines since 2023
Tank Dell Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Tank Dell, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 1, under 2 (3 graded)
- Receiving yards over 18, under 16 (34 graded)
- Receptions over 16, under 15 (31 graded)
- Anytime TD over 14, under 20 (34 graded)
Our calls on him: Freezing 0–1 · Dome team outdoors 4–5 · Middle of the field 3–4 · model 17–16 · Pre-snap motion 2–5 · Play action 0–2 · Starters out on defense 1–0 · Short week 0–1 · Missed tackles 1–3 · Explosive plays 1–3
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | – | – / 25% | – | … |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 41 | 51% / 52% | 98 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 45 | 49% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 53% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 42 | 40% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 42 | 43% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 34% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 49 | 49% / 51% | 54 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 60% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 34% / 42% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 53 | 36% / 51% | 39 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 32% / 45% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 34 | 27% / 51% | 126 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 30% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 36% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 41 | 34% / 51% | 35 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 46 | 33% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 29% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 38 | 33% / 49% | 57 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 27% / 44% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 38 | 42% / 50% | 38 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 52% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 38 | 37% / 49% | 62 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 7.9 | 62% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 41 | 36% / 50% | -3 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 23% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 36 | 34% / 51% | 40 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 21% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 64 | 52% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 50% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 61 | 46% / 50% | 50 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 55 | 46% / 49% | 149 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 55 | 47% / 50% | 149 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 56% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 53% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 63 | 55% / 50% | 56 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 63 | 55% / 50% | 56 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 58% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 58% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 36 | 39% / 50% | 114 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 36 | 40% / 50% | 114 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 52% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 43 | 44% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 43 | 46% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 38 | 48% / 51% | 57 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 38 | 45% / 50% | 57 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 42 | 46% / 54% | 16 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 42 | 44% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 29 | 38% / 51% | 145 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 29 | 37% / 49% | 145 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 48% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 14 | 33% / 51% | 72 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 14 | 28% / 51% | 72 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 14.5 | – | – / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 13.5 | – | – / 49% | 34 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | – | – / 47% | 3 | over |
Our calls
- 2024 W16 Under 40.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 40.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 40.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 52.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Over 52.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 52.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 48.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 48.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Over 49.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Over 49.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 68.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 68.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 55.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 55.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 55.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 58.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 58.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 62.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 62.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 52.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Over 52.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 52.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 45.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 45.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 51.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Over 3.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Under 53.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W13 Over 60.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W13 Over 60.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W13 Over 60.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W13 Over 60.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W12 Over 65.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W12 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W11 Under 59.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W11 Under 59.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W11 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W10 Under 57.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W10 Over 57.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W10 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W9 Over 45.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W9 Under 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W9 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology