WR · TB · 14 lines since 2023
Ted Hurst III Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Ted Hurst III, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 17% — we make it 14%
- Line 12.5 yds longest rec — we project 16 (P(over) 61%)
- Line 16.5 rec yds — we project 26 (P(over) 64%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 68%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 3, under 0 (3 graded)
- Receptions over 2, under 1 (3 graded)
- Anytime TD over 1, under 3 (4 graded)
Our calls on him: Pre-snap motion 0–0 · Short week 0–0 · model 2–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 17% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 12.5 | 16 | 61% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 26 | 64% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 68% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 25 | 55% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 64% / 60% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 31 | 58% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 22.5 | – | – / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | – | – / 57% | 3 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Over 21.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Under 21.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Over 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology